FORMPLUS betting contributor Mike Clarke has taken a detailed look at heats for the Group 1 Ladbrokes Hobart Thousand run Thursday night.
Race Breakdown: The speed map has two clear runners ahead through the first and second sections on best times, LEICA PRAYER (2) and JALLA ROMELDA (3). JALLA ROMELDA (3) likes to race wide so LEICA PRAYER (2) may get the room to work to the lead before the bend.
Victorian visitor, FLYNN (8) is a Group 3 winner and raced in a Group 1 Final last start after a brilliant heat win in fast time at Sandown the start before. Has done most of his recent racing from the inside and faces a wide draw, a long way from the rail at his first Hobart start however his best times look significantly quicker than his competition. He will start favourite in this race and is rated closely behind Hooked On Scotch in pre-post betting to win the final.
LEICA PRAYER (2) may get some room early from her good draw with a wider runner in box three and her recent times at Devonport, including the Group 3 Chase Final have been outstanding. Has the experience on the track and her best times may be hard to run down if she can lead through the turn.
LEICA PRAYER (2) appears a good chance of holding the lead to the turn and her experience on the track could be an advantage.
Betting Plan: LEICA PRAYER (2) 1 unit to WIN.
Race Breakdown: The speed map for the second heat has a clear leader in PECO CAN (3) however most of the data is from her last preparation, four to six months ago. STOP LINE (7) and FABULOUS BAROQUE (8) appear next best but both like to rail and have drawn wide boxes. Interestingly, the inside three runners all like to race wide and the runners in boxes 6,7 and 8 are keen to rail so the charge to the bend promises to be interesting.
If she is anywhere near her best, PECO CAN (3) will be tough to beat. There are some question marks over her recent form, and she had a heavy fall in Devonport a little over a week ago but it’s hard to ignore her record on the track of 15 wins from 16 starts with her only defeat coming in the Final from a year ago.
STOP LINE (7) is backing up from a brilliant Devonport Chase win and has drawn poorly out wide with a quick beginner who likes to rail in box eight. His best is clearly quick enough to win this race, but the draw has made things very difficult for him. Will need some luck early.
Finalist from last year, BE LIKE BILL (4) ran some sensational times on the track a few months back but can be hit or miss at box rise and has a difficult draw to deal with.
Track specialist, PECO CAN (3) may be a little below her best but trainer Robin Grubb commented about an infection in a recent interview that may have been affecting her performance. She has the pace to drive to the front on her best form and form there would be very tough to beat.
Betting Plan: PECO CAN (3) 2 units to WIN.
Race Breakdown: Good early speed form out wide with CHIEF’S EMPIRE (8) and BUCKLE UP ROSE (5) the likely leaders and multiple Group winner HOOKED ON SCOTCH (4) not far behind. There isn’t much speed from the inside boxes which may allow HOOKED ON SCOTCH (4) a chance to cross to the fence before the turn.
Pre-post favourite and Group 1 winner, HOOKED ON SCOTCH (4) looks extremely difficult to beat in this heat despite drawing awkwardly in box four. There are only moderate beginners drawn to his inside, so he looks a great chance to take a forward position early and his overall times are arguably the quickest in the country at present.
NITRO SAMBAR (7) produced a huge performance to win last start in Devonport after being posted extremely wide throughout the race he finished strongly to record a fantastic time despite the conditions and interference. Likes room early and may get that here if he can avoid the pink after box rise and appears a solid each-way hope on his Hobart form.
Hard to look past one of the countries quickest greyhounds, Hooked On Scotch, however NITRO SAMBAR (7) is currently a much better price to fill the placings.
Betting Plan: NITRO SAMBAR (7) 2 units to PLACE.
Race Breakdown: Lots of quality early speed on display with ATLEY QUICK (1) having the best of the recent early and middle sections making him a great chance of leading from the inside draw. The next line on the speed map features SPEEDY DENEHOLME (2), HELLO RHONDA (4), YOUNG RECRUIT (5) and NED ISAKOFF (8).
ATLEY QUICK (1)’s last inside draw resulted in a brilliant Devonport win where he recorded 25.46. He has been forced to work hard during his following starts from wide draws and still managed to record some impressive times. Looks the leader and could be hard to catch on his best times.
RAGING RALSTON (3) may not have the early pace to match some of these runners but his overall times and run home times are phenomenal. He broke the track record from this box two months ago and had had to exit box seven at his following four race starts so should appreciate being drawn closer to the fence here. It is likely he will need to come from midfield early but has shown he is capable of that at prior wins and looks tough to hold out with a clean run.
RAGING RALSTON (3) has drawn near the rails where he likes to race and although he may be midfield early, can find the fence and finish powerfully.
Betting Plan: RAGING RALSTON (3) 2 units to WIN.
Race Breakdown: STANLEY GORDON (7) dominates the overall recent best times and his Hobart split times have been outstanding despite displaying only moderate pace at Devonport. He ranks well in front through the second section in this heat with HELLO LENNY (1) and FLAMENCO BAROQUE (2) next best.
Track record holder, STANLEY GORDON (7) appears suited out wide as he likes room approaching the turn and there isn’t a great deal of pace drawn to his inside so he may work to the lead out wide. There doesn’t look to be a lot of depth in the race and his main competition is drawn on his immediate outside. If he can hold him out in the early stages, his overall times are clearly quick enough to win this race.
TIGGERLONG TONK (8) almost led his Melbourne Cup heat two starts back before finding trouble around the turn. He backed that form up with a great win at Ballarat from a wide draw and may find the outside box gives him some time and room to drive forward before the bend. Would most likely need to cross the seven before the turn to win which could be a challenge if he begins at his best.
Track record holder, STANLEY GORDON (7) likes to use plenty of the track and just needs to begin cleanly to be tough to beat in the final heat.
Betting Plan: STANLEY GORDON (7) 2 units to WIN.