Sunday’s Listed Kevin Sharkie Tasmanian Oaks has attracted just a field of eight with six of those runners trained outside of the state. It’s no great surprise to see this race well supported by mainland trainers with 10 of the last 15 winners coming from across Bass Strait.
The Strutt Stakes on Hobart Cup Day is the main local lead-up for this race and was run at a very slow tempo. Sacred Valley led the Strutt and you would expect her to go forward again while Let’s Nail It will push forward as can Ocean Heart, so this race does look to have a bit more pace despite the smallish field.
- Still A Star (7) – Assessed Price $2.90
She continues to take all before her and overcame the setback of missing the Derby to win the Strutt Stakes albeit by the smallest of margins. She sat second on that slow tempo and was left in front a long way from home, so the win had plenty of merit despite being run to suit those forward in the field. She has an awkward draw for Brendon McCoull who has ridden her forward at all three wins since she ran second to Mystical Pursuit in the 3YO Trophy.
- Mystical Pursuit (2) – Assessed Price $2.70
The slow tempo of the Strutt enabled her to finish with the fifth fastest last 200m of the whole program and she would have won in an extra bound. I’m not sure that race did a lot to show that she can stay, but she will no doubt be better for the run and she’s come up with a much lower draw. It’s no coincidence that her win over Still A Star this campaign came when she settled in front of her and provided Billy Egan isn’t buried well back on the rail I think she can turn the tables.
- Ocean Heart (1) – Assessed Price $30.00
The Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained filly steps out past 1600m for the first time. Despite having her first Tasmanian start, we do have a small form reference through Rogues Point who she beat two start back with that horse finishing outside the placings as a $1.45 favourite in the Tasmanian Derby. She’s an on-pace type so the appointment of Craig Newitt is interesting given you normally associate him with those ridden further back in the field. Her SP Profile suggests my assessed price will likely be well above what the market goes up, but I think there is a query over the strength of the lead-up form as well as the distance.
- Look Sharpish (3) – Assessed Price $8.00
She was a very impressive winner at Moonee Valley last Friday, putting a good margin on the field over 1600m. Troy Corstens said after the race that an Oaks would be the target and Tassie is the one he has chosen. She’s another getting out to the trip for the first time but the way she won last start gave every indication that the extra ground should suit, and I have her as the pick of the visitors from a cushy draw for Clayton Douglas.
- Durability (8) – Assessed Price $35.00
She did as well as she could working home for fourth in the Strutt after getting well back off the crawl in front. Her last 600m was second to only Mystical Pursuit in that race and she would have probably run top three with a stronger tempo. Drawn the widest gate for Siggy Carr so she may go back again and hope that backmarkers have a better chance than they did last time.
- Sacred Valley (6) – Assessed Price $25.00
Blaike McDougall ran the race on his terms in the Strutt getting an uncontested lead that enabled him to box on for third without really threatening the quinella. There looks a bit more speed in this one, but I expect similar tactics to be employed and like Durability they may take benefit from having had the one run in Tasmania already.
- Let’s Nail It (4) – Assessed Price $27.00
The Tim Hughes-trained filly looks likely to challenge for the lead and was a strong winner in a Stony Creek maiden last start when Carleen Hefel went for home a long way out. She stuck to the task gamely behind Godolphin’s Vallauris the start prior who was among the first nominations for this meeting. She looks a tough type who can run into the money without surprising.
- Bellx (5) – Assessed Price $40.00
Despite coming off a win she was sent out a big price at Sandown in the same race as Ocean Heart where she finished fourth beaten just over a length. She worked home from the tail there and now gets to 2100m quickly having run over 1200m just three starts ago. Like most of them coming across, I think she has her work cut-out but Jamie Kah taking the ride adds a shot of confidence after her Gold Sovereign win here last week.
Matt Reid’s Tasmanian Oaks market:
| Still A Star | 2.9 | 34% |
| Mystical Pursuit | 2.7 | 37% |
| Ocean Heart | 30 | 3% |
| Look Sharpish | 8 | 13% |
| Durability | 35 | 3% |
| Sacred Valley | 25 | 4% |
| Let’s Nail It | 27 | 4% |
| Bellx | 40 | 3% |
| 100% |