Hobart takes its turn in the spotlight this week with an outstanding Tasmanian Derby/Bow Mistress Trophy program to take place in the Friday twilight timeslot. Punters have 8 quality races to bet on with the 3yo Carbine Club also a highlight featuring Tasmania’s best sprinting 3yos. I Love It shapes as a raging hot favourite to make it back-to-back Bow Mistress Trophies, while Jerilderie Letter looks to cap an outstanding 3yo campaign with a Derby victory. The rail is back in the True position after being out 6m at the last meeting, and while the track has had plenty of rain in the past week there is fine weather forecast for two days leading into the meeting which should result in a good racing surface.
[button href=”http://test.tasracing.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Thoroughbred-preview-Feb-5.pdf” style=”emboss” size=”medium” color=”#b93130″ textcolor=”#ffffff” texthovercolor=”#000000″ tooltip=”Print copy of preview as PDF” icon=”print”]PRINT COPY[/button]
[tabs]
[tab title=”Race 1″]
Race 1 2:30pm Claude Neon Maiden (1200m)
Lotza Luck looks likely to hold the front here from his inside draw, with only Count My Blessings from wide out appearing a genuine contender for the front. Pop A Lefty with the blinkers off, Geegees Muscle Man, Etown and Gee Gees Cool Gal are the main hopes to box seat behind them. Expecting a genuine tempo to give all runners their chance.
Quirribilly Lodge is a lightly raced 5yo who resumes here after a promising first preparation where he was placed at all three starts. Had a trial leading into this and the 1200m should suit him fresh as he looks likely to get a trip later on. Don’t think the wide gate will concern as he will go right back and has leading rider Brendon McCoull on top. Will want a bit of pressure up front but does appeal as the top hope.
Lotza Luck was a little disappointing when beaten as a short-priced favourite last time out in December in slow time but the horse that beat him there then ran well in C1 grade. Looks like finding the lead on the fence pretty comfortably which gives him his chance. Still a bit unknown on how good he actually is but gets every chance to prove himself in this.
Gee Gees Cool Gal went very well last time in Launceston when 2nd behind a promising horse in Noblecourt. Siggy Carr was able to get her to race closer to the speed than usual and may be able to do so again here to overcome gate 10. Has had a few chances but is generally honest and tries hard and can be right in the finish with the right run.
Static React has been well in the market at both her career runs and resumed in good style last time in Hobart when weaving through traffic in the straight to run 3rd. Gets in light here with Maskiell’s claim and draws nicely for a good run in behind the speed. Looks a leading chance with natural improvement.
Sh’bourne Dylaca was a well-beaten favourite at Longford last time out but that run can be forgiven as she covered a lot of ground outside a fast tempo and was entitled to give up. Has a tongue tie on here and draws inside for a much cosier run for Darmanin. Rates a hope on her first up 2nd and could improve sharply in this.
Next best looks to be Geegees Muscle Man (reasonable 2nd last time beating home Static React but did get good run, may get good run again) and watch the market with the first starter Banca Boy from the strong Brunton stable.
Verdict: Competitive race to start the day with a number of winning chances. Quirribilly Lodge will have to give them a start but looks the most promising horse in the race. Lotza Luck gets the run in front which can often win these early races, while Static React looks to be a mare on an upward spiral.
Recommended Bet: 4 units on Quirribilly Lodge to win.
[/tab]
[tab title=”Race 2″]
Race 2 3:05pm R M Worbey Constructions Maiden (1400m)
Expecting a good tempo here with Under Milkwood, A Choice Scotch, Fought For and Deciding Clause all capable of taking up the running. Derek The Viking and Mr Rossellini can race on speed also, as can Victory Medal although early in his prep he tends to race off the speed. Should be enough pressure for the backmarkers to get their chance.
A Choice Scotch has started her career well with two 2nds albeit in races run in very slow time. Step up to 1400m looks ideal and she has the early speed to take up a position on the pace. Should be cherry ripe here 3rd up and she looks well placed. Hardest to beat.
Derek The Viking was very well fancied last time when tackling the mile for the first time but he was quite disappointing after racing right on the speed. Think he is probably better suited back to 1400m at this stage of his career and should get a cushy run just behind the leaders from the inside draw. Mixing his form a bit but with every chance in the run and his best form he is right in the mix.
Hell Baby comes back to her home track after four solid efforts racing at Launceston. Efforts at 1400m have been good but a little concern that she may want a mile now. Should get a great trail from her inside draw and the speed on to suit so she should get every chance. Rates as one of the better winning hopes and the switch back to Hobart might bring about that extra improvement to break her duck.
Hirvonen can be forgiven for his run at Devonport and returns to his home track where he has performed well this prep. Ran two 2nd placings here over this trip behind Genuine Art and One Shot Off in November and both have proven to be above average maiden winners. Needs speed on in his races and should get that here so expect him to be running home hard at the finish.
Matiano was a much improved effort first up in Launceston when running home strongly behind two handy horses. Should appreciate the step up to 1400m and gets Steven Arnold in the saddle. Back to his home track should also suit and he only needs to run up to his first up effort to be a genuine chance here.
Next best Under Milkwood (been ok at past 2 for new stable, may be suited up to 1400m being one paced) and Fought For (had specking at first run in this state, showed speed and beaten easily but may be better suited at longer trip).
Verdict: Even race with the Bruntons having four of the five major hopes. A Choice Scotch is the horse with most scope here but wary of Hirvonen if they go too hard in front.
Recommended Bet: 4 units to win on A Choice Scotch and 1 unit to win on Hirvonen.
[/tab]
[tab title=”Race 3″]
Race 3 3:44pm Tasmanian Hospitality Association BM62 Handicap (2400m)
Big field for the rare 2400m race here with Geegees Classicboy looking an almost certain leader and he likes to bowl along and set a genuine tempo. Doesn’t look to be too much pressure on him with Deux Foix, Our Anna, Electric Crimson and Shlingas most likely to take a position on the speed but most of these are happy to get back and relax early.
Note: at time of publication Stephanie Thornton was down to ride both 1 and 2. The replacement rider for the one she doesn’t ride may have an effect on their chances considering the big weights both are down to carry.
Cheryl’s Horse comes here off a good effort in BM82 grade where he somewhat surprisingly ran favourite and had no luck in the run home. He was still only a tick over 3 lengths from the winner Hugo who will line up in the Cup on Monday. Thornton’s claim has him in well at the weights here but she is still inexperienced, especially at these longer distances. His form since a freshen has been excellent and with luck in running he stands out as the one to beat here.
Milson is a consistent stayer who comes back to this grade after a solid 4th in the Summer Cup last time at WFA. Huge drop in grade but he gets plenty of weight as a result, with no rider booked at time of publication. He has won with 60kgs in this grade earlier in his prep so it is not beyond him and he has had plenty of racing for the mile and a half now. Accepted to run in the Cup on Monday but looks an excellent chance if they decide to run here.
The Princeling had done very little at his first two starts in this state before enjoying the fast tempo last time over a mile, running home into 2nd despite his 100/1 starting price. Steps up sharply to the mile and a half but 2 of his 3 career wins have come over further than 2000m. Kyle Maskiell takes the ride and his staying form in Victoria looks good enough for a race like this. Maybe a slight fitness query but appeals as a strong chance.
Electric Crimson has had a month break since running a distant 3rd behind Cheryl’s Horse at Longford but does look suited up to 2400m. Prior runs were good in BM72 grade which is good form for this. Gets in light with the claim for Andreou and can take up a position near the lead which may advantage here. Should be around the mark in an open race.
Gwemrae won well last time over 2100m in BM72 grade so looks well placed here and trainer Barry Campbell commented post-race she was looking for the 2400m. Barrier draw is awful but there is a long run to the first turn for her to try and slot in. Has less convictions than many of these and is a definite winning chance here.
Geegees Classicboy hasn’t really come on this prep after winning last year’s Tasmanian Derby at big odds but this is a substantial drop in grade. A couple of his runs this time in have been ok but last time he was beaten a long way in the Summer Cup. Still has plenty of weight after the claim but this is the easiest race he has contested for some time and if left alone in front he may find his best form.
A number of other genuine hopes here. Prominent Star is a promising horse who won well in Maiden/C1 grade last time over a mile but has to step up sharply in trip for his first try past 1600m and will find this much tougher. Shlingas is racing in good form in lower grades but is in well at the weights and will no doubt be fit enough for 2400m with the M.S. Trinder polish. Big Pegg is a promising staying mare also well weighted and will do no work in the run from gate 2 so she also rates as one on the up.
Verdict: Tricky race with very few 2400m races run in this state. Cheryl’s Horse appeals as the obvious while Milson has the runs on the board in higher grade than this. Gwemrae and Prominent Star are the ones on the up, but there’s not many who don’t have some winning chance here.
Recommended Bet: 3 units to win on Cheryl’s Horse and 1 unit to win on Gwemrae.
[/tab]
[tab title=”Race 4″]
Race 4 4:24pm Navy Class 1 Handicap (1200m)
Plenty of speed here with Red Sun Rising, Sunday Cider, Gee Gees Vicki, Box Of Frogs and Gee Gee Sun Valley all possessing the early speed to lead or be right there. Many can be handy too, with Gloray, Noblecourt, Marie Clare, Ile Aux Cygnes and Slinky Malinky all capable of being on the leader’s hammer. Should be a fast tempo and the backmarkers will have no excuses from a pace perspective.
Seajamm resumes here after being scratched from a race at Launceston last week. Only had the one run at this track which was an excellent effort on debut when caught wide all the way. Won her only other start on the turf convincingly at Launceston before a solid winter campaign on Tapeta where she was rarely far away. Very good fresh and has a number of gear changes to be ready here. Two trials under the belt suggests she’s ready to go and she gets a suitable tempo to chase. Looks a great chance in a wide race.
Step The Pedal has been good at all three runs despite inexplicably losing her early speed at her past couple of efforts. Think she will appreciate a fast pace here and being drawn out should suit her coming down the middle. Late sectionals have always been very good and think she is going well enough to win when the breaks go her way, which could well be here. Expect she’ll be right in the finish again and a leading hope.
Noblecourt was very solid when resuming at Launceston and hit the line like a good horse in the making. Drawn ideally to sit behind the fast speed and should be fitter for his first-up run. Up in grade obviously a test but back to his home track and with natural improvement he looks one of the better winning chances.
Gloray has only raced on the Tapeta surface since arriving in the state but ran some good races against some handy horses and looks well suited here on the limit weight after Maskiell’s claim. Trialled very nicely leading into this and should get a beautiful run from gate 3. Very consistent type who should be right in the mix.
Box Of Frogs was a little disappointing last time when a beaten favourite but he did a lot of work up front and was entitled to knock up late. Should be rock hard fit now but may find similar pressure in front here which might test his chances again. Has plenty of ability and a winning hope but chances are a bit dependent on how much pressure eventuates.
Next best looks to be Red Sun Rising (trialled very well, well drawn and 1200m suitable fresh), You Didn’t (far too good last time when breaking maiden in slow time, will appreciate fast tempo) and Gee Gee Sun Valley (better suited back to 1200m but wide draw might be hard for Carr to overcome).
Verdict: Good competitive race but looking at those coming from off the speed to feature prominently. Going with Seajamm who races well fresh and should do no work from the gate, but big respect for Step The Pedal also. No reason Noblecourt won’t be in the finish, while Gloray looks a good chance at longer odds.
Recommended Bet: 5 units to win on Seajamm and 3 units to win on Step The Pedal.
[/tab]
[tab title=”Race 5″]
Race 5 5:04pm Carbine Club 3yo Plate (1100m)
Plenty of pressure up front here with Madame George, The Captain, Naadam and Gee Gees Jet all liking to race in the lead. They’ll also have competition from the likes of Gee Gee Red Prince and Count Out who have the early speed to be there if desired, while Only Kiss and Brightness can be on speed and Bob Of The Head is capable of being forward also. Should be a brutal tempo and lean to the strongest ones at the finish.
Gee Gee Red Prince has been freshened since his close 3rd behind Jerilderie Letter and Gee Gees Top Notch at 1400m which should be ideal for him to tackle the 1100m. 3 runs ago he won the 3yo Vase at this track and distance in super impressive style, beating Gee Gees Top Notch easily and running impressive times in the process. Think he will be very well suited here just sitting off a fast speed and drawing wide won’t be too much of an issue if McCoull can find cover. Fast, tough horse suited at set weights and looks top pick.
Gee Gees Jet has been in excellent form all season against the older horses and gets his chance against his own age here. Back to 1100m looks pretty suitable but the outside gate looks a major obstacle in a race with so much speed drawn inside him. He doesn’t have to lead but sitting wide without cover brought him undone two starts ago and would likely to so here, so Carr’s ride will be paramount to his chances. Leading chance but the risk is there.
Count Out was a major flop in the 3yo Cup but went into that race on the back of a rushed preparation and has been given plenty of time to start over. Trialled in scintillating fashion at Longford last week and has the concussion plates taken off for this. Was a late nomination for this race so the little query is there – is he underdone again like the 3yo Cup? Loaded with speed and looked freakish during the winter – if we see the real one he is a definite winning chance.
Naadam ran a career best last time out when a close 2nd behind Silver Bolt after sitting on a brutal tempo in a strong BM72 here over 1200m. Likely to have to do the same again here with plenty of speedsters engaged but that form is only below the topliners as far as sprinters go in this state at the moment and the drop to 1100m won’t hurt him one bit. Races well here and providing Thornton can find a decent spot from 9 he can be right in the finish.
Bob Of The Head comes from Victoria with just the one win to his name and a decent effort first up in BM64 grade when sent around a well-supported favourite. Very hard to line up his form but has only missed a place once (at Caulfield in Listed grade) and is well drawn to sit behind the speed. Stable knows how to win a race here over the carnival and have great respect for him but he takes on a strong bunch of 3yos here.
Next best Madame George (been a couple of lengths off the top ones but confidence boosting win last time and well drawn), The Captain (won well last time but big rise in grade) and Brightness (well drawn and won well at this track and trip 3 starts ago).
Verdict: Good race with 5 key chances. Sticking with Gee Gee Red Prince who looks best suited by the likely fast tempo, but have clear respect for the other four chances. Especially Count Out, who could be anything.
Recommended Bet: 8 units to win on Gee Gee Red Prince.
[/tab]
[tab title=”Race 6″]
Race 6 5:44pm Schweppes Tasmanian Derby (2200m)
Al Shameel led them up in the Hobart Guineas and see no reason why he won’t again here. Jerilderie Letter and Infinite Reign can be handy, while Howard Be Thy Name can be closer at his first run past a mile. Expecting a similar tempo to the Guineas, however Arnold may be a bit keener to get things moving earlier after being out sprinted by Jerilderie Letter last time.
Jerilderie Letter was very impressive with how he finished off in his Guineas win and this looks set to be run at a similar tempo so doubt the 2200m will pull him up. Continues to do everything that is asked of him and should get a cushy run from the inside draw. If the race develops into a sprint home he looks to have their measure again but there’s nothing to say he won’t be strong enough if they run things a bit quicker. Deserves to be favourite.
Howard Be Thy Name is a well bred colt from the all-conquering Darren Weir stable. Has been racing well in good quality maidens in Victoria and while he steps up sharply from 1600m he has 6 runs under his belt in this preparation. Not sure where he ends up from the wider draw and may not be suited if racing back on just a steady tempo so won’t be surprised if he pushes forward. Stable knows what it takes so obvious respect for this one and he looks a leading hope.
Al Shameel gave a good display in front in the Guineas when 2nd and should appreciate the extra 100m here. Strong stayer who doesn’t possess the sprint of the favourite but looks like he’ll run all day and should get his chance to dictate terms again. The Derby has often been won by a leader in recent years, some at very big prices, so it would be no surprise to see him go all the way here and he looks a good option for each-way punters.
Infinite Reign comes across the river for Robert Smerdon and has had some support in early fixed odds markets. Looks to be a genuine stayer and Mark Zahra may elect to push forward as he has blinkers on for the first time. Runs in this distance range should hold him in good stead and the stable is one you have to respect when they come down. He should get every chance and has genuine winning claims.
Siorca ran on nicely when 3rd in the Guineas and the extra 100m looks suitable for him also. Quality 2yo who has disappointed a bit as a 3yo being unable to win in five starts. Can’t knock his past couple of starts but also hard to see him turning the tables on Jerilderie Letter with even luck in running. Should run an honest race again but reckon a couple of these might have his measure.
Verdict: Think the winner is set to come from one of the top five chances with Jerilderie Letter the deserving favourite. Howard Be Thy Name is the new blood with the speed to challenge the favourite, while Infinite Reign adds genuine staying form into the mix. No reason Al Shameel won’t lead again and he fits the profile of recent Derby boilover winners.
Recommended Bet: 3 units each way Al Shameel.
[/tab]
[tab title=”Race 7″]
Race 7 6:23pm Magic Millions Bow Mistress Trophy (1200m)
Big field of mares but Snippetee Bee looks the only genuine leader. A number of on-pacers will keep her honest, with any of Merrick’s Beauty, Spirit Of Nia, I Love It, Sh’bourne Spirit, Frolicked and Beck And Call able to take a position on the speed. Expect a genuine tempo but the on-pacers do look to get their chance.
I Love It was a most impressive winner of this race last year and returns this year with far better form under her belt. Comes in fresh like last year but draws perfectly to get a good run just off the speed. Group 1 placed in Adelaide back in May as well as being Group 3 placed in Sydney so her ability is unquestioned and she has good results against many of the mainland raiders. A repeat of last year’s effort will have her going back-to-back so it’s scary to think she’s probably better this year.
Our Harmony is a very honest sprinting mare who has won in metropolitan grade and has the services of Damien Oliver. Draw is a little awkward but right man on top to slot in. Has victories over Miss Steele and Mossbeat in the past so formlines are good. Sure to be well fancied thanks to the Oliver factor but fear she may find the favoured runners a touch too smart.
Nautical is an older mare with a big finish who has form around many of the mainland competitors in this. Comes here fresh for the 1200m which should suit but she will have a big task ahead of her to chase down the leading fancies. Should appreciate WFA having carried some big weights last preparation and if they go too hard or swoopers are featuring she is in the mix.
Erin’s Element looks clearly the best of the local chances after a devastating win in the Lady Lynette Plate. Her form against the boys this time in has been superb and from gate 8 she should get her preferred cover back in the field to allow her to unleash her big finish. Like the Melbourne swoopers she might need the leaders to overdo it or a fast lane out wide but she can reel off sectionals as good as any and if it’s possible to run down those in front she’s one who can do it.
Next best looks to be Mossbeat (Group placed, has form around the top hopes, only won 1 from 20) and best roughie is the local mare Ryan’s Daughter (super first-up effort at this track and kept fresh for this, big step up in grade but can run time).
Verdict: I Love It looks extremely hard to beat and is a great chance to go back-to-back here. Our Harmony has the form to be a genuine danger, but basically every mare from Melbourne has some chance to be in the finish. Erin’s Element looks the best chance of the locals.
Recommended Bet: 8 units to win I Love It and 1 unit each way Erin’s Element.
[/tab]
[tab title=”Race 8″]
Race 8 7:00pm Tasmanian Race Horse Owners Assoc Class 4 Handicap (1100m)
Plenty of speed engaged here with Miss Elsa, Beckon, Manchero and Bella Venus all genuine speedsters who should ensure a fast tempo. Not a heap of pressure on them with Savvy Princess, Spihro and maybe Partenza most likely to box seat but all runners should get their chance.
Partenza is a quality mare but she doesn’t race as well here on her home track as she does on the firm footings of Launceston. Drawn beautifully and appreciates chasing a fast tempo but if the track is at all shifty it can totally derail her winning chances. Being in the last race should help as the track will have plenty of chance to dry out through the program and any run-on pattern would be suitable for her also. Finds a nice race here and looks a great winning chance if conditions suit.
Grey Gown is a smart mare who doesn’t win as many races as she probably deserves to due to her extreme run-on racing pattern. Form at this track is very good and ran well over this distance last time in good mares’ company. Last prep she placed behind horses such as Royal Rapture, Geegees Goldengirl and Jay Bee’s Gee Gee so her form is good enough for this. Will appreciate the fast tempo and gets an in-form rider on top in Carr. Would enjoy any sting out of the track and a run-on pattern and looks a genuine hope.
Issawi resumes from a spell here with a good trial under his belt and blinkers on for the first time. First run for Scott Brunton he finished close up in a similar race and he looks suited racing just behind the strong speed. Drawn wide but that could well prove an advantage later in the day and he gets in on the minimum weight. Fresh form is generally strong and no surprise to see him right in the finish here.
Bella Venus has taken a bit to find form this prep but her past couple of runs have been good. Not as well suited here with plenty of pressure up front and a wide draw but did beat home Partenza last time and placed at her only run here over 1100m. Nearing her peak this prep and may run a bit of a race at odds.
Coriace returns from racing in Victoria and resumes from a spell with two trials under his belt. Won in good time last week and looks primed for this first-up. Has placed at this trip which looks suitable fresh and he will enjoy a fast tempo to chase home. Raced very well when last in the state and his best form is good enough to feature in this.
Next best Vandemeer (racing well before plain effort last time in harder race), Manchero (loves this trip and has had one trial but pressure will be strong to test him), Beckon (very speedy, good Victorian form and Maskiell sticks with him but needs to improve on first up run) and Spihro (hasn’t done much wrong since arriving in the state and may get right run just behind leaders).
Verdict: Very open race to finish but do like Partenza if the ground is genuinely firm. Should it be a bit choppy or faster out wider then Grey Gown comes right into calculations, while Issawi can run well fresh and market moves can indicate if he’s ready.
Recommended Bet: 4 units to win on Partenza with 1 unit to win on Grey Gown and Issawi.
[/tab]
[/tabs]