Thoroughbred racing action comes to Hobart this Sunday as the Summer Racing Carnival hots up with the running of the $100,000 Kevin Sharkie Hobart Guineas, the $50,000 Geegee Horse Stud Summer Cup and the $20,000 Rogerson & Birch Surveyors Lady Lynette Plate. The bumper 9 race card brings good field sizes with plenty of depth to prove a great challenge for punters. After racing in the True position last meeting the rail goes out to the 6m position from the 1150m to the Winning Post, and back to the 3m position for the remainder. With good weather forecast up until raceday we should be dealing with a firm surface, but the track can often suit wide runners in the straight, especially late in the day.
[button href=”http://test.tasracing.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Thoroughbred-preview-24-January-2016.pdf” style=”emboss” size=”small” color=”#9b1330″ textcolor=”#ffffff” tooltip=”Print PDF copy” icon=”print”]PRINT COPY[/button]
[tabs]
[tab title=”Race 1″]
Race 1 12:30pm Sparks Business Development 2yo Maiden (1000m)
Tricky to form a map with every horse here unraced and the majority only having had one trial. Strike For Victory and Della Terra look to have speed as does Little Elsa and Gee Gee Mightymiss and Aljazmic can be thereabouts.
Strike For Victory has created a huge impression at the trials, winning both in fast times by big margins. Her latest win by over 9 lengths breaking 57 seconds is about as fast as 2yos go this time of year. Well bred by former brilliant 2yo Smart Missile, she has drawn well in 4 and looks very hard to beat here.
Hot Dipped is a half-sister to the good horse Hugo by hot stallion Written Tycoon and ran right up to her breeding in a recent trial when scoring by just over 6 lengths in 58 seconds flat. Showed an ability to relax and run home from behind in her trial and looked a really nice filly in the making. Outside draw can be an issue without the early speed to overcome it but she looks the clear danger to the favourite.
Hard to see the winner coming from outside the top 2 chances off exposed trial form. Della Terra and Gee Gee Mightymiss are stablemates who trialled alright together before Della Terra got opened up by Hot Dipped in a subsequent trial. Aljazmic wasn’t hopeless at her only trial when making some ground behind Bonjour Belle back in November and has the services of Darmanin, while Tantivy Belle was the pick of the triallers behind Bonjour Belle a couple of weeks ago but has drawn wide. Little Elsa and Trader Vic weren’t bad in slower time behind Acronym but weren’t in the same league as the favourites.
Verdict: Looks a genuine two horse race from the trials, with Strike For Victory the jump and run type whereas Hot Dipped is the one with possibly more scope who will take a bit of time to settle in early.
Recommended Bet: Have 7 units to win on Strike For Victory and 3 units to win on Hot Dipped.
[/tab]
[tab title=”Race 2″]
Race 2 1:04pm R M Worbey Constructions Pty Ltd Maiden (1100m)
Looks to be very good speed here with The Captain, A Choice Scotch and Static React all having plenty of early speed and likely to look for the front. George’s Gambol, Geegees Muscle Man, Blushing Pink and A Matter Of Time can all be on-speed also. Every horse should get it’s chance.
The Captain ran well when resuming when a close 2nd behind Only Kiss at this track. Rise to 1100m is fine but does draw awkwardly in 12 which may be an issue if he is only fairly away again like he was last time. If he gets across into a good spot he’ll take a lot of running down and looks one of the better chances.
George’s Gambol resumes after a winter prep entirely on the Tapeta surface where he ran reasonably in some decent maidens. Had a trial leading into this and draws ideally in barrier 1. His first-up run last time was good so expect him to be with or just behind the leaders here and he should run well.
A Choice Scotch ran alright on debut behind You Didn’t and should be improved by that run. Draws nicely again to get a good run near the speed. Looks like she’ll be better suited over a little longer but she should get every chance in the run to show up here.
Quiet Wonder tries the turf for the first time after two reasonable Devonport efforts in average maidens. Should be better suited on the bigger track with his racing style but will have to overcome a wide barrier here. Nicely bred type who needs to improve but may do so getting onto the grass.
Roitfeld wasn’t bad on debut behind You Didn’t but appeals as a horse wanting a bit further. Winkers get replaced with blinkers here which may sharpen her up a bit more and she does draw nicely. Expect her to be running home but might find a couple of these a bit sharp.
A few queries in this race. Static React comes here with pacifiers and a tongue control bit for the first time after being well beaten as favourite at his only run at Devonport during the winter. Maskiell takes the ride to bring her in light and she had trialled well previously. Sharp improvement wouldn’t surprise so watch market. Fought For has his first run for Stephen Lockhart after a narrow trial win. Nice strong type of horse formerly trained by Hayes & Dabernig and Carr is a promising booking so watch the market with him too. Finally Geegees Muscle Man ran reasonably a couple of times as a 2yo but comes here after a long spell. Watch the market here also.
Verdict: Very even race with a number of unknowns to account for. The Captain has the form but the wide gate is a concern with a bit of speed drawn under him, while George’s Gambol gets a nice run from the inside draw but hasn’t raced away from Devonport. On top of that, the market may throw one up with lesser exposed form so be wary.
Recommended Bet: 2 units to win on The Captain and 1 unit to win on George’s Gambol.
[/tab]
[tab title=”Race 3″]
Race 3 1:39pm South Sea Oyster Farms Maiden/Class 1 (1600m)
Rangaondarun looks the obvious leader here in a race without a great deal of pressure up front. Expect Strategic Moves to roll forward and Derek The Viking probably does likewise from his wide draw. Not much obvious pressure outside of those so those racing handy may be advantaged.
Kissed By Fire is a promising mare who won very nicely at only her second race start over 1400m in Launceston over a month ago. Going to a mile for the first time with the 5 week break between runs is a query but she ran a very strong last 800m last time and does shape like a horse suited over more ground. Form out of both runs has been solid and she looks hard to beat back to her home track.
Strategic Moves is also lightly raced and broke his maiden last start at his 3rd race start. Time was very slow there and the field wasn’t strong but McCoull sticks with him and 1600m looks suitable. May get a lovely run on-speed on a slower tempo again so while he probably needs to keep improving he is going to get every chance to do so. Rates very highly in this.
Prominent Star is getting a bit costly for punters after being beaten as favourite at his past two outings but he again looks a leading chance in this. Ran home well last time from back in the field but it is a little concerning that he is developing a pattern of running on without winning. Third run at a mile is maybe a concern given he’s been a tad flat and taken a while to get going but his form is good and he should still be very competitive.
Derek The Viking was very narrowly beaten last time over 1350m by a promising horse in Special Shot and looks ready to try the mile now 4th up. Wide draw isn’t ideal but if he begins well Maskiell can probably find a good spot near the lead. First try at this track but gets in light with the claim and has genuine winning claims.
Littlerayov is first emergency but shapes as a live hope if she gets a run. Ran home very nicely last start over 1400m behind Livermore at Launceston and should have finished a bit closer. Won her maiden here over 1400m at her only try on this track and she looks suited at 1600m. Definite hope if she runs here.
Next best look to be Rangaondarun (poor last time but previous form ok, has winkers on and should get a comfortable lead) and Livia’s Lite (won well at Longford but was suited by tempo there).
Verdict: A number of different form lines makes this a tricky affair with a number of chances. Lean to the mare Kissed By Fire on her home track but wary the speed might not be suitable. Strategic Moves and Derek The Viking are most advantaged if the on-pacers are featuring early in the day.
Recommended Bet: 2 units to win on Kissed By Fire and Strategic Moves.
[/tab]
[tab title=”Race 4″]
Race 4 2:14pm Vale Terry Bone Maiden/Class 1 (1600m)
Very little obvious speed here on paper with former interstate galloper Mr Rossellini looking most likely to take up the running. Drovers Lane and All Bar Madison have shown speed on occasions before while Genuine Art has the blinkers on and may go forward from a wider draw. Will be a muddling tempo unless someone decides to take the initiative but a hard race to predict who that might be.
Genuine Art is a filly with promise who comes right back in grade after racing in BM72 grade against some good mares last time. Won her maiden well over 1400m here back in November and shapes as though the mile will suit. Blinkers go on for the first time and she can be advantaged in this by going forward. Looks well placed.
Special Shot is a lightly raced 3yo who broke his maiden in good fashion last time at Devonport. Think he will appreciate this track with his run-on style and 1600m looks very suitable. Will probably go right back from the wide draw and might be at the mercy of the on-pacers a bit but he should be finishing hard and is a major chance.
Zemiro has been racing well over the mile without winning and looks one of the better chances again. Is a month between runs after a float mishap caused her to be scratched a fortnight ago but she ran 2nd over a mile in November off a similar break so it shouldn’t be an issue. Best form is at Launceston but her only two runs at Hobart were before things clicked for her so that is a bit inconclusive. Expect her to be running on well as she always is.
Littlerayov is first emergency but shapes as a live hope if she gets a run. Ran home very nicely last start over 1400m behind Livermore at Launceston and should have finished a bit closer. Won her maiden here over 1400m at her only try on this track and she looks suited at 1600m. Definite hope if she runs here.
Poacher’s Son finished off strongly last time over the mile here to record his first career win in this grade. This looks to be a tougher assignment but 4th placed Miss Choosey in that race has come out and won the Thousand Guineas since. May be able to settle closer than some of these if the pace isn’t on which would help and a repeat of his last run has him competitive again.
Next best looks to be Toakio Tower (improved run last time with blinkers on) and Crib Point (very disappointing last start but well up to this on previous form).
Verdict: Handy race. Like the filly Genuine Art who looks to have a bit of a future. Special Shot is also a promising type and will be hard to beat, while Zemiro, Littlerayov and Poacher’s Son are all showing enough to be very competitive if things go their way.
Recommended Bet: 6 units to win on Genuine Art.
[/tab]
[tab title=”Race 5″]
Race 5 2:49pm Terrace Strata Management Clarence Cup (1400m)
D’inzeo should roll to the front here with the emergency Before All going forward if she gets a run. Foreshore Dane, Secrets She Has, Tara’s Gem and Tough Poacher look to jostle for positions handy to the speed, while Aquila Reale has to decide forward or back from the outside gate.
D’inzeo was very impressive when winning here at this trip in this grade a fortnight ago and looks well placed here to do so again. Will find this a little tougher and goes up a couple of kilos but should get a good run on speed again and only has to repeat his latest effort to be very hard to beat here.
Aquila Reale was also very impressive last time when dropped back to 1100m, sprinting home hard to win by a margin going away. Beat D’inzeo home comfortably when first-up albeit being aided by the pattern but that form ties in very nicely here. Up to 1400m should suit and did win her maiden over this trip, but the outside gate will take a good ride from Thornton to overcome. If he can she is a major winning chance again.
Turtles Nest comes from the major 3yo races with his most recent effort being a close up 8th in the Tasmanian Guineas. Probably better suited coming back to 1400m and may find this a little easier. Good booking of Carr who will need to be on her game to slot in from 10 but he has the speed to do so if D’inzeo breaks them up early. Should run well.
Beryl Bee has been racing well since they started riding her quieter and was very good last time when a fast-finishing 2nd behind D’inzeo. Stays down on the minimum weight and Darmanin sticks with her. Drawn inside so will do no work early and if she runs up to last time she’s a genuine winning hope.
Tara’s Gem ran quite well last time when 3rd behind D’inzeo and meets him a couple of kilos better for that run. Draws to get a good run again for Maskiell and may be better for that run being her first try over this trip. Needs to improve to turn the tables on D’inzeo but she should be in the mix.
Next best looks to be Boart (bit disappointing last time and draws wide again but won well over Aquila Reale and D’inzeo two back) and Secrets She Has (mare with ability but hasn’t really come up this prep, best form is good enough here).
Verdict: Like D’inzeo to win again from the front, but have respect for Aquila Reale who is a smart mare, and the 3yo Turtles Nest. Throw in Beryl Bee and think the winner comes from one of those four.
Recommended Bet: 6 units on D’inzeo to win.
[/tab]
[tab title=”Race 6″]
Race 6 3:24pm Rogerson & Birch Surveyors Lady Lynette Plate (1100m)
Should be a genuine tempo here with Miss Elsa and Snippetee Bee likely to run along in front of Merrick’s Beauty, Beck And Call and Sh’bourne Spirit who all have plenty of speed themselves. Every horse should get their chance.
Erin’s Element is in a purple patch of form which has included a 2nd in the Newmarket, a 3rd in the Winzenberg and then a strong 2nd on Devonport Cup day behind Geegees Doublejay. Will find this easier than what she has been contesting but should get a solid tempo to chase which is vital for her racing pattern. She looks well placed in this and if the inside is off she will only be further suited. Great chance.
Snippetee Bee is a smart mare who loves this track and especially this distance. Wasn’t disgraced in the Newmarket when only beaten 3 lengths and has been kept fresh since with just a trial leading into this. Like the booking of Carr and she will appreciate racing against her own sex. Should give a big sight and looks a genuine chance in a good race.
Merrick’s Beauty returns from a plain run on the mainland but was racing in excellent form previously. Races really well at this track and has won twice here at 1100m. Form ties in with all the major fancies in this and from a good draw for Darmanin she should get the right run to be in the finish.
Sh’bourne Spirit resumed with an excellent 4th here over 1000m behind Hellova Street but just went off the boil somewhat at her subsequent Launceston runs. Has been freshened and won a trial at Longford by 8 lengths in blistering time as she tends to do. Won this race last year and can win again if she produces her best form.
They look to be the four main winning hopes. Next best Grey Gown (will appreciate back to mares’ grade and any run on pattern).
Verdict: Not much between the four of these. Happy to go with the track specialist Snippetee Bee who is well in at this weight scale, but wouldn’t be shocked to see any of the four win.
Recommended Bet: 4 units to win on Snippetee Bee.
[/tab]
[tab title=”Race 7″]
Race 7 4:04pm Kevin Sharkie Hobart Guineas (2100m)
Tricky map to work out here with most of these 3yos going to the 2100m for the first time. No obvious leader but expect The Master Speed, Al Shameel, Geegees Gran Lodge and Jerilderie Letter to roll forward to set the tempo. Don’t expect them to break any records so the on-pacers are probably advantaged and a slow tempo would suit some of these with a query at the distance.
Jerilderie Letter comes here as the class runner with wins at his past two starts including a last-stride win in the Tasmanian Guineas here at a mile last time out. Was slowly away there and had to make a sustained run from worse than midfield and was strong on the line to score. Breeding doesn’t suggest he’ll run the trip at all but appears capable on his latest effort. Would be suited by a slow tempo as he has the best turn of foot in the race and looks the leading local chance.
Al Shameel comes from Victoria with decent form to his name against older horses in decent provincial racing. Trip should suit him down to the ground being by Zabeel and Patrick Payne generally brings the right horse down for this type of race. Ability to go forward looks a bonus here and no surprise if Arnold sets a genuine tempo to test the rest at the trip. Looks a genuine hope.
Albion Road is a lightly raced gelding from the Mick Kent stable who is the only horse in this race to have raced at 2000m or beyond. Won his maiden in impressive style last time out over 2025m at Kyneton when expected to as the $1.60 favourite. Kent is generally around the mark when he brings one to Tassie, such as the Cups winner Epingle, and this one looks to be a genuine stayer. Will find this harder but appeals as a strong winning chance.
Speedhump comes through the Tasmanian Guineas where he was quite a good effort to stick to his task after being forced to race wide throughout and he does look suited up to the 2100m. Was only beaten 1.6L and shapes as the local most suited by the rise in distance out of that race. Lightly raced but heading in the right direction and might prove to be the best value in the race.
The Master Speed made the big jump into this grade after a couple of impressive wins to start this campaign and nearly pulled it off with a close 3rd in the Tasmanian Guineas. Goes forward and makes his own luck and from gate 1 he should get a nice run on speed in this. On trial at the trip but half-brother Pass Me By won up to 2500m. Another who can win a very tricky race.
Next best Siorca (much better last time when running home well for 4th in the Guineas which puts him firmly in the mix, some query at the trip) and then the remaining two runners Geegees Gran Lodge and Strathalbyn, who haven’t been that far away and both look suited at 2100m.
Verdict: Incredibly tricky race to sort out with the 2100m being an unknown for most of these runners and the Victorian form being hard to line up. The bunched finish of the Tasmanian Guineas and second-placed Gee Gees Top Notch’s defeat on Wednesday night throws a query over that form and the mainlanders do look much more suited to the trip than their local counterparts. Plenty of chances but maybe the Victorians find the locals vulnerable here.
Recommended Bet: 3 units to win on Al Shameel and Albion Road.
[/tab]
[tab title=”Race 8″]
Race 8 4:39pm Geegee Horse Stud Summer Cup (2200m)
Should be a good tempo here with Miss It And A Bit and Geegees Classicboy both happy to take up the lead and run along at a strong clip. Prom King, Milson, Shiralee and Geegees Goldengirl can take up a position on the speed, with Up Cups and Lingo also looking to be midfield or better. Should be a genuine staying test.
Player One was an amazing run last time when a narrow 2nd in the Brighton Cup, getting a mile back in the run before reeling off meeting-best sectionals late to make up a tremendous amount of ground late. Has been in super form all preparation and was placed in this race last year. Well treated under WFA conditions, gets the speed on to suit again and looks very hard to beat.
Geegees Goldengirl was an impressive winner of the Devonport Cup last time when taking up an unfamiliar role in the lead. Obviously that form looks strong for a race like this and she is especially well off at WFA. Form all preparation has been very strong and she won her only two tries in this distance range in the major fillies’ staying events last season. Ticks all the boxes and hard to see her not being right in the finish here.
Up Cups raced his way into the Hobart Cup last time with a strong staying effort to win the Brighton Cup against a number of rivals in this. Goes an extra 100m here for the first time but that looks unlikely to be an issue. Not as well treated at WFA after winning on the minimum last time but form ties in well and is one of the leading chances again.
Lingo continues to race well but hasn’t been able to break through for a win this prep. Close up last time in the Brighton Cup but like the winner the WFA conditions don’t suit quite as well here. Distance seems fine and has never missed a place on this track. Barrier 10 means he might not get quite the cushy run like he did last time so it’s hard to see him turn the tables on the likes of Player One but he has at least strong place claims.
Streetwise Savoire is an interesting runner, taking on the 2200m for the first time. WFA form in sprinting races has been very good over the past year and can forgive well beaten run in Devonport Cup where he got well back in an on-pace dominated race. Bounced back from a well-beaten run in the Devonport Cup last year to win the Thomas Lyons here at 1400m so he’s capable of sharp improvement but whether he can do that here at 2200m looks a much different ask. If he runs the trip strongly his WFA form has him in the mix but it is a genuine concern.
Next best Milson (consistent type comfortably beaten last time and not suited at weights but stays and draws much better this time) and Miss It And A Bit (form from Longford Cup win good, much different race at this track however and first try this longer trip with Geegees Classicboy here to keep him honest).
Verdict: Looks two main chances at the weights here and leaning to Player One to get the job done over the likely favourite Geegees Goldengirl. Don’t think there’s much between them as proven through WFA races and he might have the edge on his home track. Up Cups and Lingo appeal as next best.
Recomended Bet: 6 units to win on Player One.
[/tab]
[tab title=”Race 9″]
Race 9 5:16pm Earrings & Leather Bag Shop Benchmark 72 Handicap (1200m)
With Concrete Johnny drawn wide we should see a fast tempo as he works across to run them along. Naadam and Gee Gees Style can be on his hammer with a number of on-pacers with them such as Extended Warranty, Silver Bolt, Lustica, Spihro and Espry. With the fence likely to be off by this time and the fast speed they could be coming from everywhere late.
Silver Bolt is racing in super form having won his last 3 starts and although he is right up in the weights now with 59.5kgs after Boris Thornton’s claim, he did carry this weight to win first up at this track in BM62 grade. Has won 4 of 5 at the trip and has the speed to stay in touch if Concrete Johnny tries to run them ragged. Ticks a lot of boxes and looks the obvious top pick again.
Vandemeer ran a very good 4th last time on Devonport Cup day when coming from last to finish close up behind Geegees Doublejay. Started a similar price to Silver Bolt the start before when caught wide and meets that horse far better at the weights here. Newmarket run was excellent and he will be suited if the inside has gone off. Primed to run a big race.
Geegees Soprano came along way last prep and proved he was right up to this grade. Comes here first up with a trial win under his belt and while he has never won fresh he has placed 3 from 4 and generally runs well. Very good at this distance and can also be finishing hard down the middle if that is the spot to be.
Concrete Johnny is a speed machine with the big weight of 62.5kgs to carry but he has placed with that weight previously and won well 2 starts ago with 61kgs. Outside gate will let him roll forward to the lead under his own steam and expect him to try and break the field right up as he did last time, with his greatest asset being his mid-race cruising speed. If the inside is off by this stage it probably won’t help his chances but he may get right away if jockeys are playing games with each other trying to get out wide and he shouldn’t be underestimated.
Lustica returned to form nicely last time here over 1400m when only run down late by Hyperbole. Comes back to 1200m which should be fine and gets in super light with Maskiell’s claim. Tough race to win but she can get the right run from the good gate to get her chance.
Such a wide race here that every horse has some hope, with next best being Gee Gees Style (continues to race well, big weight pulls him up a bit) and Naadam (on the up but this is harder and needs to go to a new level).
Verdict: Very hard race outside of the obvious top tip in Silver bolt but the market is likely to see it the same way. Vandemeer appeals as one ready to fire here and will be suited by any run on bias.
Recommended Bet: 4 units to win on Silver Bolt, 2 units to win on Vandemeer.
[/tab]
[/tabs]