Sunday’s Group 3 Ladbrokes Hobart Cup has attracted a field of 12, down from the maximum of 16 but it looks a deep race with plenty of winning chances. Five of the field ventures across Bass Strait with the $100,000 Ladbrokes Double Cups bonus a likely carrot for them making the trip.
Last year’s Cup was brutally run without a great deal of obvious speed in the race, and there are enough on-pacers in the race to expect this to be a reasonably run affair. Taikomochi will need to use the straight to work across from his wide draw with Kanji, Appmat, Gee Gee Fiorente and He Ekscels others that can push forward.
- Home by Midnight (9) – Assessed Price $6.50
The 7Yo gelding is top-weight in the race mainly due to his exploits in New Zealand which have seen him finish second in the Group 1 Auckland Cup over 3200 metres the last two years. He chased home the flying Vaucluse Bay at his last two starts and although he is yet to win on Australian shores in nine starts since transferring to the Patrick Payne stable, a lot of those races have been over unsuitably short distances. Genuine stayer who is no stranger to carrying big weights.
- Taikomochi (12) – Assessed Price $4.50
The 6YO gelding looks to be everything you would expect from a Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott-trained horse, being a tough on-speed type who responds strongly when challenged. A Listed winner over the Hobart Cup distance last start at Warwick Farm, the wide barrier will allow Adam Hyeronimus time to work across and assess the speed exiting the straight for the first time. Looks set to be in the race for a long way.
- Morton’s Fork (1) – Assessed Price $7.50
He comes through the race won by Taikomochi where he finished down the track after starting much shorter than him in betting and importantly was found to be lame post-race. The start prior he ran second to The Candy Man who has built a cult following in Queensland. Barrier one can be awkward in these races if Daniel Ganderton can’t hold a forward position early, but certainly respecting the stables decision to bring him down given the issues last start.
- Exoteric (2) – Assessed Price $40.00
The 7YO gelding was purchased as a major Cups horse and everything he has done so far this preparation has been geared towards this point. I would have liked to see a bit more from him in the lead-up races to be confident here.
- Toorak Affair (8) – Assessed Price $5.20
The 6YO mare has won six of her nine races this preparation and looks perfectly set for this race after winning both the Brighton and Summer Cups along the way. Her ability to settle much closer to the speed than early in her career has been critical as she still possesses a turn of foot when required. Drops to the minimum of 54kg with Anthony Darmanin keeping the ride who has developed a good connection with the horse this time in. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see her well-supported in betting.
- He Ekscels (4) – Assessed Price $50.00
He’s finished well down the track at his past two starts, the most recent in the same race as Home by Midnight when he dropped off badly in the home straight. His record indicates he might prefer the sting out of the ground so any rain may be a bonus.
- Appmat (10) – Assessed Price $22.00
He finished third in this race last year with a brave run after racing on the hot tempo. Things have seemingly not gone to plan since then including this preparation where he missed a start in the Brighton Cup as a rider wasn’t available. Trainer Brendan McShane is confident he has the 7YO back on-track though and he could certainly run a race at a price as he did in 2019.
- Shady Hustle (7) – Assessed Price $20.00
The Stephen Lockhart-trained mare shot to prominence in last year’s Summer Carnival winning the Tasmanian Oaks as a 3YO. This race appears to have been a target for the campaign, and things have gone solidly including a strong win two starts back in benchmark company. Hard to see her turning the tables on Toorak Affair from the Brighton Cup with a 4kg swing against her, but she should acquit herself well.
- Dogmatic (11) – Assessed Price $13.00
The up and coming young stayer has only had the 13 career starts and is still eligible for much easier races than this. He graduated from restricted age benchmark races last start to run on well from the back to finish alongside the toppy here. Likely to be giving a start particularly from the draw but he’s certainly not without claims.
- Glass Warrior (6) – Assessed Price $18.00
She put the disappointment of the Devonport Cup behind her with a return to form when running second here on Saturday in the Summer Cup. She hit the line strongly enough to suggest 2400m won’t be a problem but she’s another local with a bit of ground to make up on Toorak Affair.
- Gee Gee Fiorente (5) – Assessed Price $60.00
The 4YO gelding has long had this race in his sights, but the preparation hasn’t exactly gone to plan with a missed run in the Sheffield Cup and another last Wednesday when he was a late scratching in the race won by Kanji. It would be a huge training performance to have him finish among the placings and he will no doubt be better for the experience.
- Kanji (3) – Assessed Price – Assessed Price $75.00
The 8YO won last week when Mehmet Ulucinar controlled the race from the front in a four-horse field. His runs this campaign have all been solid enough to warrant a place in this field, but it’s hard to see him winning though he could easily beat a few home.
Matt Reid’s Ladbrokes Hobart Cup market:
| Home by Midnight | 6.5 | 15% |
| Taikomochi | 4.5 | 22% |
| Morton’s Fork | 7.5 | 13% |
| Exoteric | 40 | 3% |
| Toorak Affair | 5.2 | 19% |
| He Ekscels | 50 | 2% |
| Appmat | 22 | 5% |
| Shady Hustle | 20 | 5% |
| Dogmatic | 13 | 8% |
| Glass Warrior | 18 | 6% |
| Gee Gee Fiorente | 60 | 2% |
| Kanji | 75 | 1% |
| 100% |