Wednesday’s Group 3 Ladbrokes Launceston Cup sees a significant number of the Hobart Cup runner’s back-up with 10 of the field of 14 competing in Hobart which gives us a significant form reference to work through.
There are enough on-pace runners to suggest the race should be run at a genuine tempo. Gee Gee Fiorente and Taikomohci led early in Hobart before Appmat eventually pulled his way to the front. That trio will likely be on-speed again with the outsider Pinkeyes Pride also a chance to go forward as that would appear his best hope of running into any prize money.
*Odds taken Monday at 11:00
- Home By Midnight (11) – Ladbrokes $9.00
The 7YO carried top weight in Hobart and will do the same in Launceston but carries 1kg extra to lug 59kg. Billy Egan found himself well back in the field and despite working home solidly could only manage a midfield finish. He draws wide again so you would expect he will go back and hope to be a bit closer to the leaders when the race is on in earnest. Blinkers go back on and there is certainly no query on his strength at the end of 2400m.
- Taikomochi (5) – Ladbrokes $5.00
The early race favourite in Hobart was replaced in that role by the eventual winner as the money poured in. He was honest racing on-speed and was comfortably the first home of those that led early in the race. There does look to be enough pressure up front to ensure he won’t get it all his own way, but he showed in Hobart that he will box on strongly when challenged.
- Morton’s Fork (8) – Ladbrokes $14.00
The Richard Litt-trained visitor was a drifter in Hobart and was another who couldn’t make any real impact after settling in the back half of the field. His last two runs now have been well below what we saw towards the end of 2019 and he will need a return to something like his best form to improve into the placings.
- Toorak Affair (2) – Ladbrokes $3.10
The 6YO mare was well backed from the time markets opened in Hobart and punters were bang on as she scored a decisive victory. Anthony Darmanin found the 1-1 position early in the race and from there the mare was the only horse you ever wanted to be on. She draws for another trail behind the speed although she may be forced to race inside runners as opposed to Hobart. She’ll need to carry 3kg more in Launceston which is noteworthy, but she deserves favouritism, and plenty will be cheering for the Cups double.
- Exoteric (12) – Ladbrokes $14.00
Despite being over a month between runs and jumping from 1600m to 2400m the 7YO had the fastest last 600m of the Hobart Cup and finished just behind the placegetters. That run would have topped him off for Launceston where he looks really well placed to show his best. He settled in the back half at Hobart so you would expect the same from the wide draw and he looks one that has plenty of scope to improve from the race just over a fortnight ago.
- Appmat (7) – Ladbrokes $51.00
After being caught wide early, Zac Spain elected to work his way to the front in Hobart and was a spent force once they reached the home turn. The 7YO was first-up there for two months so likely will appreciate having that run under his belt. He can certainly improve with a softer run, but he didn’t back up well in this race last year after finishing third in the Hobart Cup the start prior.
- Dogmatic (13) – Ladbrokes $13.00
After starting a $5.00 chance in Hobart the market has shied away from the 4YO who is more than double that price in early Launceston Cup betting. He settled towards the tail in Hobart which was no great surprise but his work to the line was a lot less than the market suggested and he only beat a few home. He has remained in the state since that run which being a young horse should be a positive and if backmarkers have a better chance than they did in Hobart he could easily bounce back.
- Gee Gee Fiorente (3) – Ladbrokes $101.00
He worked to the lead early in Hobart but weakened when the heat really came into the race and finished over 16 lengths from the winner. Blinkers and ear muffs are off which may help him finish the race off better, and it wouldn’t surprise to see him ridden a bit colder. Whatever he does here I would expect he will improve on in these races next season.
- Glass Warrior (1) – Ladbrokes $10.00
The 4YO mare put in a career best effort to finish third in the Hobart Cup and was forced to make a sustained run well before the home turn to do so. Her effort there was brave and along with the other mare Shady Hustle, they are the weight horses from Hobart given they remain on the minimum of 54kg. The inside gate looks a big negative for Siggy Carr though as the horse much prefers to race outside others and last time she had the same barrier she finished well down the track in the Devonport Cup.
- Pinkeyes Pride (9) – Ladbrokes $151.00
She’s won two races from 58 starts and is a 56 rater. She’ll put some speed into the race but it’s impossible to see her being any real danger.
- Settler’s Stone (14) – Ladbrokes $34.00
The Cups stalwart lines up for his fifth straight Launceston Cup where he will look to improve on his fourth in the race last year. He finished the Night Cup off really well from the tail which gave every indication that the added distance of this race will be a positive. The barrier dictates that David Pires will likely have to go back but in what shapes to be the last race of the 8YO’s career, they’ll be leaving nothing to chance and he could easily run into the money without surprising.
- Shady Hustle (10) – Ladbrokes $9.50
The winner of last year’s Tasmanian Oaks has lost nothing as a 4YO and has now finished in the quinella at her last five starts. She was well ridden by Bulent Muhcu in Hobart who made his runs at the right time and he’ll need another good one here from a tricky barrier. She meets Toorak Affair 3kg better from Hobart so it isn’t hard to make a case she can turn the tables and given what she’s done in her career to date she must be seen as a legitimate chance.
- White Hawk (4) – Ladbrokes $16.00
He guaranteed his position in this race by winning the Night Cup which affords the winner ballot-free entry. He failed to beat a runner home in the race last year when backing up from the Hobart Cup but after missing that race this year he looks better placed to improve. The current price looks short enough given he was $71.00 three starts ago in the Brighton Cup, and the depth of the last start win is questionable.
- Vamos Raffa (6) – Ladbrokes $11.00
The Tasmanian Derby winner lining up adds a great story to the race and the 3YO will only carry 52kg with Georgie Catania taking the ride. The Derby win was a Listed one, but he entered that race as a maiden and this looks a considerable leap at this stage of his career. I’d be very surprised if he didn’t drift considerably from his current price.
Verdict: It would take a significant form reversal for anything outside the top six from Hobart to win the race, and I expect the winner will come from that group. The $3.10 for Toorak Affair looks rock bottom and while I wouldn’t be sending her around a loser if she drifts closer to $4 and greater, the current value for me is with Exoteric who looks primed for the race given his preparation.