The speed map for the Group 2 feature has CAISHEN (8) trying to cross over from the wide box to head CONNECTED (1) at the first turn. If he can do so and hold the front, he will be winning based on his heat time. If CONNECTED (1) can push up and challenge for the lead it is a different race and he may be hard to beat from the better, inside draw.
*Odds taken at 9:00 on race morning.
1. CONNECTED – Ladbrokes $2.60
Won his heat superbly from box four after getting pushed wide in the run to the first. He cut to the rail around the bend and finished the race strongly to record 29.70, a little outside his best time on the track of 29.60. He ran 5.02 early last start and has recorded 4.99 off this draw when he won here last month posting 29.66 overall and without any great early pace to his outside, we can expect a similar performance here. Leading trainer Ted Medhurst is sure to have him at his best and the red box in Launceston is a huge advantage winning over 21% of the time.
2. NITRO SAMBAR – Ladbrokes $5.50
Ran a personal best, 29.61 in his heat after an early section of 5.08, just a fraction outside his best of 5.06. He has a tremendous record on the track with nine wins and five placings from 15 starts and has drawn well. He clashed with CONNECTED (1) a month ago with both runners exiting the same draws they have here in the final and whilst gallant in defeat, he was no match for CONNECTED (1) who had the superior early pace to hold the lead. It looks unlikely that he has the pace to match him early and therefore appears a solid place hope.
3. BUCKLE UP AZONA – Ladbrokes $21.00
Has been slowly working back to near his best since resuming in December and ran a top race in his heat after coping a heavy check before the first turn. He regained momentum and chased hard to record 29.74 which he can improve on with a clean run. His first section of 5.10 is about what we can expect again here which may mean he is in the middle of the pack approaching the turn. If he can find the fence and avoid any trouble, his best is fast enough to finish in the placings.
4. OUTLAW TEDDY – Ladbrokes $26.00
Used his outside draw perfectly to win his heat when he stayed wide in the run to the first turn, avoiding any trouble, before crossing over to find the lead. He ran an overall time of 29.86, less than a length outside his best run on the track. He has produced his best times from outside boxes when he has received room early and will need to improve on his first section of 5.10 from his heat if he is to hold out the early pace from the wider boxes.
5. TWISTED REALITY – Ladbrokes $31.00
His run of poor box draws continues and has some of the slower early sections in the field however he has produced some decent first splits of 5.15 and 5.17 in Hobart. It’s hard to argue that he has serious top speed as he showed when winning a Breeders Classic heat in Hobart last year recording 25.71. CONNECTED (1) won on the same day posting 25.92, some three-lengths slower overall however it is a different story here around the tight, two-bend track and he has a tough ask from a difficult draw.
6. MR. CAMACHO – Ladbrokes $41.00
Is a runner with limited early pace and may find himself in the back half of the field in the run to the turn from a tricky box draw. He was last early in his heat before he drove along the rail at the first turn, avoiding all the interference to find the front down the back. His time of 30.04 makes him the slowest qualifier but he has run 29.72 on the track from the red box. With the poor draw and his lack of box speed, he looks tested in a quality Group 2 field.
7. WYNBURN LETHAL – Ladbrokes $21.00
The youngest runner in the race having just turned two years of age. She ran a brilliant 5.02 for the first split in her heat and has run 4.99 previously so will be one of the runners challenging for the lead in the run to the first turn. She improved significantly on her Launceston times of 30.14, 30.02 and 29.91 to finish with a superb 29.66, making her the third fastest qualifier. She has raced well from wide draws having run a brilliant time at Devonport from the same draw to win the Breeders Classic Final last month.
8. CAISHEN – Ladbrokes $1.80
The little dog from New South Wales could not have been more impressive in his heat when he recorded a sensational 29.41 making him the quickest qualifier by three-lengths. His first section of 4.93 was just a fraction outside the track record of 4.91 and his second split of 19.35 is the fastest I can find in recent times. The pink box in Launceston is the toughest to win from having a strike rate of just 9.1% over the past five years but the runners to his inside like to head to the rail so he may get some room to show his pace and find the front again. Still the one to beat despite the draw.
Betting Plan: The brilliant CAISHEN (8) looks tough to beat, and if there are any problems, CONNECTED (1) has the draw to take advantage and that is the way the market currently sees it with both runners opening short odds. NITRO SAMBAR (2) is close to 1.70 the place in early betting and should see a clean, rails run.
NITRO SAMBAR (2) 2 units to PLACE.