Tasracing

The Listed Ladbrokes Elwick Stakes is the first Group or Listed race for the two-year-old’s this season and is the highlight of tonight’s Launceston program which may be hampered by rain.

The Bureau of Meteorology are forecasting a 90% chance of between 6-15mm, and an example of how that can have an impact was the meeting on 10 January receiving significant rainfall during the program, resulting in horses racing well away from the inside rail.

The three two-year-old races run this season have all been on a Good 4 surface, so if there is a downgrade from the current rating, it will be the first time that any of the field of nine have raced on a rain-affected track.

There appears to be four main chances for the race, and the Ladbrokes market is having difficulty separating Le Cadeau and Vivilici ($3.50 favourites), from Entrapped ($3.80) with a slight gap to Gee Gee Josie ($4.80). The winning margins from each race this season have been under a length so luck in-running as well as how the track may be playing by the fifth race will be vital to each horses chances.

The field contains three first starters who will all need to defy recent history, as winners of this race in the past few years have included Mystical Pursuit, Mystic Journey, Pateena Arena and Gee Gee Double Dee who all entered the race with a few starts to their credit.

Two $50,000 features for fillies or mares offer strong support to the Listed feature tonight, and the Adam Trinder-trained Mystical Pursuit has been installed a dominant $1.40 favourite for the Steve’s Liquor Thousand Guineas for three-year-old’s over 1600m.

The winner at five of her seven Tasmanian starts, she picks herself as a clear standout despite being a beaten favourite in the Tasmanian Guineas last start. Looking for one to beat her isn’t as easy, but both Brendan McShane and John Luttrell each will saddle up two in the race, looking for an upset result.

McShane has Stepaside Rousey and Sardegna Deel in the race, with Stepaside Rousey coming off a last start second where drawing gate 2 became a disadvantage when the rain came.

“She let down into the worst part of the track, and to her credit she battled through it and did a very good job but I think it took the speed out of her legs,” said McShane on his filly who will be ridden by Craig Newitt from barrier 10 tonight.

Despite Stepaside Rousey perhaps having the more superior form of the pair, McShane thinks Sardegna Deel can put in a forward showing, off a strong recent trial performance in open company.

“She trialled extremely well behind Speedonova at Longford and I think that formline is going to prove really strongly in the Thousand Guineas,” McShane said confidently.

Brighton based trainer John Luttrell sends Cambalache and Seguimientos to the race, and their performances over the mile will provide an indicator as to whether the Strutt Stakes over 2100 metres on Hobart Cup day is the next target.

“They’ve both won 1400m races and been strong to the line and on Wednesday night I think they’ll both be very hard to beat and I’m almost certain they’ll both get 2100m,” Luttrell said.

The Australian Trainers Association Lady Lynette for fillies and mares over 1100 metres is the other $50,000 race, and few would forget the performance of Mystic Journey winning this race first-up last year, commencing a campaign that would culminate in an All-Star Mile triumph.

Last year’s runner up in the 1400 metre Vamos Stakes I Remember You is the early $2.70 favourite, ahead of Gee Gee Lanett ($3.50) and Our Long Sali ($4.80).

Last start winner My Biddy was being hailed the winner in this race last year before the amazing finish from Mystic Journey, and any rain would be a significant boost to her chances which some punters may have picked up on as she’s been $10.00 into $7.50.

Watch the replay of last year’s Lady Lynette won by Mystic Journey.