Racing at Hobart comes to the Friday twilight slot with a strong 8 race program highlighted by the Winzenberg Handicap for the sprinters. The track is currently a Soft 5 but with fine weather forecast until race time there will be every opportunity for the meeting to be run on a firm surface. The rail goes out to the 5.5m position from the 1150m to the winning post, and 3m for the remainder, a shift of 3m from the last meeting.
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Race 1 2:52pm Bad Man Cider Maiden Plate (1100m)
A number of first starters here so harder to settle on an accurate map but there doesn’t look to be too much pressure for the lead from what we’ve seen. Box Of Frogs can go forward from his good draw with A Matter Of Time, while debutants Argillite and Roitfeld look most likely to race close to the place. No excuses for those near the lead on this basis.
Box Of Frogs was well backed on debut when he covered ground and ran a solid 2nd behind Trot On Candy. Draws much better this time and will strip fitter for that run. Looks very well placed and does look the winner here.
You Didn’t has run a number of good races in handy maidens and generally runs on well in races run to suit. Placed 3 from 5 here on his home track and comes out of the faster of the two 1100m maidens from the meeting on the 29th November. May not get the tempo he likes here but racing well enough to appeal as the main danger to the favourite.
Roitfeld is a stablemate of the favourite and comes here for her first start with 3 trials under her belt. Impressive at her most recent outing scoring by 6L in reasonable time and was scratched from Wednesday night’s card to run here. Drawn wide but has speed and gets in light with claim for Medhurst. Worth watching the market as the stable can line her up with the favourite.
Argillite is an Elvstroem filly on debut with just the one trial back in October where she showed plenty of ability. Has had problems at the gates at the trials and trialled quite greenly so suggest she will take plenty of improvement from this. Should get a gun run from gate 3 and can figure on that basis but probably can’t afford to do much wrong against this favourite.
Surprised if the winner comes from outside those 4 but watch the market on the other first starters Missing Link and Ruby’s Faith. They’ll need to be smart on debut to beat this favourite, however.
Verdict: Box Of Frogs looks ideally suited and can improve on his debut 2nd to win here. You Didn’t, Roitfeld and Argillite appeal to fight out the placings and are next in line if the favourite falls over.
Recommended Bet: 10 units on Box Of Frogs to win.
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Race 2 3:27pm Wonderful Wardrobes Maiden Plate (1100m)
Reasonable speed here with Lotza Luck likely to take up the running from Noblecourt and Deciding Clause, while the debutant Jacques looks capable of going forward from his wide draw.
Note: Millie Mateba is likely to be a scratching after racing on Wednesday night, but if she runs she has plenty of early speed and can be with the leaders and is probably 3rd pick.
Lotza Luck has plenty of speed and comes here off an impressive trial win where he scored by over 10 lengths in reasonable time. Only run in this state was a well beaten 4th at Devonport behind Underplay back in August. Should appreciate racing on his home track and looks to get a reasonably comfortable run on speed. Can improve sharply and is one of the hardest to beat.
Noblecourt resumes here with a quiet trial under his belt. First up run last time in was decent when 2nd behind promising mare Extended Warranty before fading 2nd up when racing on speed and then being given a break. Draws inside and should be able to sit right behind the leader or drive through early if McCoull desires. Should run well and is a leading chance.
Jacques makes his debut with 3 trials under his belt, the latest a close up effort in good time. Stablemate of Noblecourt and stable rider McCoull has picked the other one which may be a lead from the stable, but he loses nothing with Darmanin on top. Wide draw but has speed and shouldn’t be too hard to overcome to find a spot near the lead. Watch the market with him but he looks a capable type.
Buzzy Wuzzy Woo was quite good when resuming with a solid 4th behind Trot On Candy, running on well in the straight after getting back early. Looks like getting the right run midfield and being able to come to the middle in the straight which can often suit on this track. Needs to improve a little again but lightly raced and can be around the mark with a repeat of his first up effort.
Think they are the main winning hopes. Next best is Deciding Clause (better this prep and has speed but needs to find a couple of lengths again to win here).
Verdict: Does look a two horse race between Lotza Luck and Noblecourt unless Jacques has more ability than on face value. Buzzy Wuzzy Woo is the blowout hope if the inside is wetter than expected.
Recommended Bet: 6 units on Lotza Luck to win.
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Race 3 4:04pm Brighton Council Maiden Plate (1600m)
Just an average tempo here with Rangaondarun likely to find the lead from She’s Rosie. Emergencies Gee Gees Tismore and Highly Leveraged can race on the speed if they gain a run.
Island Tiger comes to the mile with two good 1400m runs under her belt and she put the writing on the wall with a strong 2nd last time behind Mel Loves Vodka in a leader dominated race. Both runs here on her home track have been good and this trip looks ideal now. Drawn for a soft run in 2, she looks the top pick and if she runs the trip like she appears she will she will be very hard to beat.
She’s Rosie was better last time when coming back to 1600m after a failed attempt at 2100m. Races well at this track, with reasonable efforts behind Geegees Gran Lodge and Constant Velocity early in this prep, and her ability to race near the lead can be an advantage in this. Think this is easier than her last run and she is a leading hope here.
Rangaondarun has been pretty good at his past couple of runs in strong races in this grade over this track and trip. Has stuck on well both times after being involved in good speed up front and those races have been harder than this. Looks like getting a much softer run in the leading few in this and while he hasn’t won in 17 goes, he gets his chance to go close here.
Kompressor raced well at his first two starts this prep before finding trouble last time in a fast run race and can be forgiven. 1600m should suit now and McCoull sticks with him. Holding his form has been an issue but if he can maintain the form of his early runs this prep he can be competitive in this.
Dark Wind is first up at the mile with two trials to get her up to the mark, including a most recent 3rd in a 1400m trial. Stable is capable of producing them fresh at this distance and she ran reasonably at her only two runs for the stable at Launceston during the winter. Has no early speed and will get back in a race lacking tempo but keeps coming and if she can be within striking distance on the home turn she can win.
Next best looks to be Somatra (first start for Team Wells, Victorian form reads only fairly), Mercyful Fate (not bad last time in harder race) and Foxtrots (early form this prep was alright but last efforts have been ordinary).
Verdict: Island Tiger is a filly on the up and looks well placed here. Rangaondarun appeals with a comfortable run on speed, while Dark Wind can figure at her first run for this stable on her home track.
Recommended Bet: 2 units each way on Rangaondarun.
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Race 4 4:44pm Harcourts Brighton Alexandra Plate (1000m)
A number of first starters means the map can be tricky to work out but Zatacla, I Love This Bar and Willby Rules can be forward early with Kyogle Son capable of going forward with the run under his belt. Every runner should get their chance here.
Gee Gee Pure Gold is a well related filly who ran home well first up for a good 3rd behind a freak filly. Step up to 1000m is right up her alley and she beat home all her raced opponents last time. Appeals as the obvious top pick and should be right in the finish.
Kyogle Son was forced to race wide on debut and did a good job to finish alongside Gee Gee Pure Gold when 4th. Draws wide again but has a longer run to the first turn and drops 2kg with Ulucinar’s claim. Might be able to get a better run in the race this time and rates highly.
Zatacla trialled alright behind Kyogle Son before winning a trial at Devonport to prepare for this. Draws beautifully in gate 2 and should get a great run in the front half of the field. Nicely bred filly who looks to have ability and is a definite market watch.
I Love This Bar kicks off his career here after winning a trial comfortably against a couple of her rivals in this. Time wasn’t flash but she wasn’t asked to do much and handled her opposition with ease. Looks a filly with talent and well worth watching the market on.
Willby Rules was given a good hope on debut after a nice trial but did a lot of work racing wide outside the lead and knocked right up. Draws wide again which won’t help but improvement wouldn’t surprise if he can be ridden a little quieter or get in closer to the rail in the run.
Of the rest, Canam trialled reasonably in decent time while Trusted Warrior hasn’t been asked to do a great deal and has McCoull booked so betting is worth monitoring with both.
Verdict: Gee Gee Pure Gold looks a filly with plenty of ability and appeals with the step up to 1000m. Kyogle Son can improve, while the market will be vital to gauge the chances of the first starters.
Recommended Bet: 4 units on Gee Gee Pure Gold to win.
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Race 5 5:24pm The Baker Family Class 1 Handicap (1200m)
Expecting a genuine tempo here with Sunday Cider looking for the lead and Trot On Candy left with no option but to push forward from her outside gate. Nice Knickers, D’inzeo, Ile Aux Cygnes and Aquila Reale can all look to be handy to the speed to keep the leaders honest.
Aquila Reale is a promising mare who didn’t do much wrong in her first prep, culminating in a maiden win over 1400m. Most of her racing was done on wet tracks, with only her debut 3rd on firmer ground. Trialled quite well leading into this but has a wide draw to contend with so would ideally like the fence to be going off by this stage. Has a good hope in an open race.
Boart was unfancied when having his first run in the state but was quite a good effort to finish close up behind Naadam. Had good Victorian form prior and will find this slightly easier. Step up to 1200m suits and he will enjoy the genuine tempo. Has a bit going for him and looks a strong winning chance.
Nice Knickers returns to her home track where she has raced twice for a win and a second. First two runs this prep were good before failing at 1400m and then racing without a great deal of room last time. Gets in light with Thornton’s claim and should enjoy a good run from gate 2. Some query on how she’s going but gets every chance to improve here.
Trot On Candy broke her maiden in impressive style last time, showing plenty of early speed and running decent time. Will obviously find this much harder and has the outside gate to contend with but does have the early speed to find a spot right on the speed if things aren’t too willing early. Rise to 1200m shouldn’t cause too many issues and she can be in the finish with the right run.
D’inzeo wasn’t too bad last time in his first try in C1 company and will appreciate the step up to 1200m here. Well drawn in gate 3 and should find a good spot from there to give him every chance. Probably looking for a bit further but lightly raced and still improving and has some hope in this.
Next best in a very even race looks to be Prickly Diamonds (can take a run but definite player if swoopers are featuring), O’Rayo (another swooper who ran home well last time), Ile Aux Cygnes (not far away last couple and Darmanin can find a good spot from decent draw) and Alpine Angel (handy mare who would also appreciate a run-on pattern).
Verdict: Very competitive race with many winning hopes. Aquila Reale shows promise and market can be a good guide to her first up. Boart shouldn’t be far away, while Nice Knickers can run an improved race from her good draw. If the winners are coming down the middle there’s a number of chances who can take advantage out wide late.
Recommended Bet: 2 units each way Nice Knickers.
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Race 6 6:02pm Twelve Stones Benchmark 72 Handicap (2100m)
Plenty of natural speed on paper for this staying event with Deux Foix and the stablemates Criollo and Able Ken all liking to run along near the lead. Our Anna is also capable of going forward while Milson may push on from his wide gate to find a position on speed. Every runner looks to get their chance.
Milson has been a model of consistency this preparation, never being beaten more than 2L at all 6 runs and his 3 runs at 2100m have all been very good. This is no harder than what he has been racing in and all his runs at Hobart have been good. Outside gate might cause a few issues early but with a decent tempo he should be able to slot in and prove very hard to beat.
Electric Crimson ran a very nice race at his first Tasmanian start when 2nd to Aventador last time and that form ties in well here. No reason he can’t improve on that at his 2nd run here and comes to his home track which may also be a plus. Should get a good run from gate 2 and only has to repeat his last effort to have a genuine winning chance.
Deux Foix was a bit disappointing last time at this trip behind Aventador but was only 3rd up there and should be much fitter for the run. Gets in well with Patterson-Doyle’s 4kg claim but she is very inexperienced over this distance which is a query. Likes to roll along on a solid tempo and gets that here. Can improve and is proven in this grade and looks one of the main dangers to the favourite.
Shipspotting placed for the first time in 5 tries over this trip last time and wasn’t a bad effort behind Aventador. Doesn’t win often but has won at this track twice and tries this trip here for the first time. Likely to run an honest race as she tends to do but needs things to go her way to be a genuine winning hope.
Able Ken has been very reasonable at his first few attempts at this staying trip and placed 3rd behind Milson two starts ago. Likes to roll along in front but finds some competition for that role in this, and could only manage a well beaten 4th under similar circumstances at his last start. He’s honest and sticks on but not sure he can get the right run to be any more than a minor winning hope.
Criollo is a handy mare who has gone off the boil a bit after racing very well at this trip through October. Last run wasn’t too bad when she had no peace in front and battled away alright but she might have similar issues getting a comfortable run in front here. She’s honest and will be competitive with the right run but might need some favours in front to get the major prize.
Next best Known About Town (much better suited this trip but only just going) and Cheers Chappy (first try this trip and big jump in grade).
Verdict: Looks an ideal race for Milson to win again. Electric Crimson can challenge if his first up run wasn’t a fluke, while Deux Foix is capable of improving.
Recommended Bet: 8 units on Milson to win.
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Race 7 6:32pm Winzenberg Handicap (1100m)
Speed looks pretty straight forward here with Geegees Doublejay likely to lead Bideford and Savvy Princess and Beck And Call racing behind them. If it pans out that way it may cause issues for Tennessee Drive and Erin’s Element who may struggle to get the cart into the race they would like and have to do a lot more chasing than desired.
Geegees Doublejay appeals as the obvious favourite and is likely to start well into the red. Has 61kgs to contend with but ran a track record last time with 60kgs so an extra kilo is unlikely to slow him down. 1100m is his pet trip and he has won 8 of 11 on his home track. Only has to hold his current form to win again.
Bideford is the new horse on the scene and will appreciate the light weight of 54kgs having spent most of his career at the top of the weights. Has built a good record in his short career but this is by far his toughest test to date. He can sit outside the favourite and have every chance to run him down but will likely find him a bit too good.
Erin’s Element comes here with great form, with a 2nd to Gee Gees Top Notch and a dead heat 2nd in the Newmarket alongside Geegees Doublejay to recommend. Has obvious claims on those runs but think she races best with cover in high pressure races and might not get that here and is also unlikely to have one to cart her into the race. Minor claims but probably needs the favourite to fall over.
Tennessee Drive hasn’t had much go right this prep but has shown himself to be a length or two off the best sprinters the state has to offer. Settled much further back than ideal last time and was left with too much to do when a well beaten 3rd behind Geegees Doublejay. Races at this track for the first time and should get cover from gate 1 but will need everything to go his way to get the last shot at them late and prefer minor claims only.
Verdict: Only four possibles but in reality it may only be one possible and that’s Geegees Doublejay. Racing in super form and will have to be off his game not to be winning here. Interest in the minors and Bideford shapes nicely to get the right run to run 2nd ahead of the backmarkers.
Recommended Bet: 10 units on Geegees Doublejay to win.
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Race 8 7:05pm Merry Christmas Everyone Benchmark 72 Handicap (1400m)
Should be a strong tempo to finish the day with Pengalas Gee Gee and Blood Orange both adept at leading at a fast speed. Don’t We Love It can be there also with emergencies Beryl Bee and Skip To The Moon likely to be handy if they gain a run.
Note: expect Miss It And A Bit to be scratched after running Wednesday night. If she does take her place she will only add to the already-strong tempo and probably finds this tough back to 1400m.
Tshahitsi is one of the state’s most promising gallopers and he looks cherry ripe for the 1400m on his home track 3rd up. Super impressive first up over 1000m beating the flying Gee Gees Jet before flashing home last time to just miss running down smart sprinter Silver Bolt. Likely to get a beautiful run midfield for McCoull behind a strong tempo and looks perfectly placed to win again.
Flying Cruiser has been freshened since three very good runs this prep including an impressive fresh win here over 1400m in C2 company. Drawn out which suits him and may also suit the usual pattern by the last race and will appreciate a strong tempo. Proven in this grade and appeals as the main danger to the favourite.
Follow My Dust ran reasonably well last time behind Skip To The Moon in a funny race and wasn’t really suited making his run back on the inside. Drawn down on the inside again which might not be ideal and probably looking for further than the 1400m being his 3rd race in a row at this trip but continues to race well and should be thereabouts again.
Skip To The Moon is very unlikely to get a run as 5th emergency but if she does she has a genuine winning hope. Very good last time racing just behind a strong tempo and would get the same type of run here. Can mix her form but a repeat of that has her as a major danger to the favourite.
O’Reilly’s Gee Gee is a good galloper who resumed in very impressive style in weaker grade over 1200m. Loves the 1400m trip and drawn out can be suitable by this stage of the day. Patterson-Doyle still has a bit to learn when riding back in the field but her 4kg claim brings him in beautifully at the weights and given a good run he can be finishing hard out wide.
Shiralee is a promising stayer freshened up for this after breaking a long winning drought in much easier grade last time. Will find this much harder but wasn’t disgraced in this grade 2 starts ago when only beaten 2 lengths behind Fund Trader. Gate 1 ensures he will do no work early but Darmanin will need to work away from the inside if the track is favouring those wide on the track by this stage as it tends to do. Should be running home well but looks on the second level of chances.
Next best look to be Don’t We Love It (disappointed last time but previous form was very good) and Pengalas Gee Gee (showed last time he’s still capable of giving a sight in front and loves his home track).
Verdict: Tshahitsi is clearly the one to beat here in a good standard BM72. The Brunton pair of Flying Cruiser and Follow My Dust should run well as they always do, while O’Reilly’s Gee Gee looks the knockout.
Recommended Bet: 10 units on Tshahitsi to win.
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