Thoroughbred racing heads to Longford on New Year’s Day for the traditional Longford Cup meeting. Primarily used for trials these days, Longford hosts a once a year meeting on it’s tight track which only allows for a maximum field size of 8. With it’s short straight it can often suit those racing on the pace but that can also result in plenty of pressure for the lead to enable the odd backmarker to finish too strongly. With good weather forecast firm ground looks a sure thing and racing should be true as a result.
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Race 1 12:57pm Incitec Pivot Maiden Plate (1400m)
Dehughes has the speed to lead from his inside draw at this distance but will find pressure early from Poacher’s Son and Gee Gees Tell All will be looking for the lead if he can begin fast enough early. Saint’s Quest raced closer to the speed last time over a mile and may look to push forward from his wide draw, while Academy Of Flight is capable of kicking up from the inside if he begins well. Looks a standard tempo but tactics on Gee Gees Tell All and Saint’s Quest could result in pressure going on a fair way out.
Poacher’s Son has been racing consistently and looks well placed here. Good effort for 2nd behind Tara’s Gem last time who has since won again, beating home Antah who came out and won at his next start also. Had excuses when failed at only 1400m start and looks to get a good run on speed from gate 3 here. Appeals as top pick.
Saint’s Quest comes back to 1400m after disappointing last time over the mile. Ran well at runs prior over shorter trips and has blinkers on first time here. Drawn awkwardly is a negative but with a few backmarkers he may slot in ok. Looks one of the better chances.
Hirvonen continues to run home well each time he steps out but can’t find the right race to land the major prize. Will find this easier than maidens he has been contesting and does like this distance but isn’t necessarily suited by the tight track. Needs the speed right on and is the swooper if that eventuates so he is an obvious chance but his chances are always tempo dependent.
Gee Gees Tell All is a one-paced on pacer best suited at 1400m. Should be suited around this track if he can race on speed but can be slow early which would destroy his chances. Can figure on his best form but early stages for him is critical.
Tomarata is the one on the up here with just the one run over 1100m under his belt. Was comfortably beaten in a race without much exposed form outside of the winner but did make some ground in the run home and will appreciate the step up in trip here. Well bred type and trained on the track so sharp improvement wouldn’t surprise and he is in this with a hope.
Next best Dehughes, who hasn’t done a whole lot but has early speed which is advantaged here.
Verdict: Competitive maiden to start proceedings with Poacher’s Son looking well placed and the obvious on top selection. Hirvonen has the form but suggest he may be under the odds around this track while Tomarata is the improver.
Recommended Bet: 4 units to win on Poacher’s Son.
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Race 2 1:32pm T A Bricknell Maiden Plate (1400m)
Pretty plain maiden for the fillies and mares but could be plenty of pressure for the lead. Gee Gees Talk Fest, Deciding Clause, Pop A Lefty and Tymoshenko have all shown a liking to go forward in their races, while Blushing Pink and Opening Line have shown speed at shorter trips. The two backmarkers Sh’bourne Dylaca and Livia’s Lite should get the pressure up front to give them their chance.
Sh’bourne Dylaca resumed in good style with an impressive 2nd behind Turtles Nest over 1100m. She ran home strongly at the finish there and looks suited up to the 1400m. In light with Wong’s claim and trained on the track so she looks well placed and there looks to be enough speed to give her the chance to finish over the top of them. Will need luck but rates highly.
Livia’s Lite has run two good 5ths at her past couple of runs and will find things a bit easier here against her own sex. 1400m appears her best distance and the outside barrier shouldn’t be too much of an issue considering she should get back anyway. Should get the pressure up front to get her chance and is trained on the track which is always a bonus here. Can win.
Gee Gees Talk Fest is another locally trained galloper and has drawn the inside. Form is consistent this prep and her run at 1400m was reasonable. Probably suited by this tight track and may get the run of the race so has to be rated a winning chance.
Deciding Clause has been steadily improving this prep and has shown the early speed to race right on the speed here. Drawn nicely in gate 2 to get the right run and looks ready for the step up to 1400m. Still relatively lightly raced and stable is in rare form so further improvement here wouldn’t shock and has a hope.
Tymoshenko was supported in betting at her first Tasmanian run where she sat on a fast tempo but knocked right up in the run to the line. Previous Victorian form was reasonable and she has a few gear changes to try and finish off a bit better here. Respect the market opinion last start and that gives her some hope in this.
Next best Pop A Lefty (has speed and not bad last time in weak maiden) and Opening Line (nicely bred filly who has some early speed and may improve with step up in distance).
Verdict: Tricky race with top two chances being backmarkers on a tight track but suited by likely good tempo. Gee Gees Talk Fest and Deciding Clause look the best of the on pacers from their inside draws.
Recommended Bet: 4 units to win on Sh’bourne Dylaca and 2 units to win on Gee Gees Talk Fest.
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Race 3 2:07pm Queens Arms Hotel Benchmark 62 Handicap (1400m)
Pengalas Gee Gee can take up the running here as long as he begins well from his inside gate but he can be slowly away at times and then over race which would be a disaster from gate 1. Krake is likely to push forward from his wide gate, while Finalargee and Aslanyon can go forward and generally race handy to the speed. Isn’t much pressure outside those four so they may get comfortable runs making it hard for the backmarkers to get to them.
Finalargee is a handy mare who can be her own worst enemy at times but she looks suited back to this grade. Siggy Carr sticks with her and she can overcome her wide draw by racing on the speed in a race likely to string out a bit. Best form is clearly good enough and has found a bit of form at her past couple with good runs in better races. Looks one of the leading hopes in an even race.
Pengalas Gee Gee is now 9 years old and lining up for his 99th career start but showed two starts back he can still run a race when circumstances suit. Can be scratchy to begin and suggest his chances will go out the window if he blows the start but if he jumps well he should hold the lead comfortably from the inside and be able to run along as he likes. Patterson-Doyle’s claim brings him in nicely at the weights and she has shown herself capable on a leader. Can give a sight in this.
By Order has had a month off to return to 1400m after two honest runs in good BM72 mile races. This looks easier and he was impressive in winning his first two starts in this state. Has plenty of weight and probably isn’t suited at this track having to make his run wide from back in the field but if he gets the right run he can win.
Auntie Beverley has been good at both runs since arriving in this state and will probably find this slightly easier than what she has been racing against. Step up to 1400m looks alright and she is drawn to take up a position closer to the speed if desired. She can likely adapt to whatever tempo eventuates and looks to have good each-way claims.
Aslanyon showed plenty of gate speed at Devonport on Sunday when sitting outside the leader and running a close up 4th behind Just Call Me Fred. Generally races better on the turf and did win over 1400m when last switching to turf from Tapeta. In well with Wong’s claim and outside draw may force his hand to find a spot close to the speed which could be an advantage. Mixing his form but capable on his best in this.
Verdict: Very even race and think every horse has at least minor claims. Pengalas Gee Gee may get a comfortable lead and be hard to run down but can blow things early. Finalargee and Auntie Beverley appeal as strong hopes getting the right runs, while By Order is one of the better horses in the race but may have the job ahead trying to make his run wide from back in the field on this track.
Recommended Bet: 4 units to win Pengalas Gee Gee.
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Race 4 2:42pm Sues of Invermay Maiden/Class 1 Plate (1800m)
Doesn’t appear to be much obvious tactical speed here. Highly Leveraged and Assez Bien look most likely to take up the running but Hofsetter is jumping from 1200m races and did race handy to the speed last time so he may use that speed to go forward also. The Flyweight can be thereabouts as well and these on pacers look advantaged without any great pressure likely to eventuate.
Big Pegg brings excellent form to this race having placed at her past four and will find this easier than what she has been contesting. Comes back from 2100m but that shouldn’t be an issue considering that was her first try at the trip. The main concern appears to be the tight track and the lack of obvious speed which may find her out if the leaders can dictate at a muddling tempo. Rates as a clear top pick but maybe not the good thing she may otherwise be on a bigger track.
Assez Bien is ready for the 1800m trip now after two fair runs over the 1650m at Devonport. Has the ability to race near the lead which means she may take up the running here, especially with Siggy Carr on board. Hasn’t been too bad in BM62 grade and will appreciate the drop in class here. Reckon this looks pretty suitable and she can give a big sight racing on speed.
The Flyweight was quite good two starts ago over the mile before failing to finish her race off last time over 2100m. Back to 1800m probably isn’t bad at this stage of her prep and she has shown the ability to go forward in longer races previously. Seems best with sting out of the ground but draws nicely and can be in the finish here.
Highly Leveraged has the blinkers back on here and looks suited by the step up to 1800m. Has failed to finish off most of his races in his career thus far but may be able to take up a position on speed and get a comfortable run here. With the slower tempo at the longer trip he may finish his race off better and he should find this easier than what he has been contesting and is at least a place hope.
Next best looks Lacey Azz (best form is good enough but has done nothing at two runs this prep), Visscher (trained on track and distance should suit but failed only try at it on Tapeta and likely to be back last) and Hofsetter (sharply up from 1200m races for first try at this trip but has been close up recently and has less convictions than most of these).
Verdict: Big Pegg looks super hard to beat but Assez Bien ticks a lot of boxes and looks a genuine danger.
Recommended Bet: 5 units each way Assez Bien.
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Race 5 3:21pm Tasmanian Livestock Services Benchmark 62 Handicap (1800m)
Able Ken looks likely to take up the lead here and shouldn’t receive too much pressure from the other on-pacers New Vision, Our Anna and Electric Crimson. Might be hard for those back in the field if the leader is allowed to roll around at his leisure.
Cheryl’s Horse was a tremendous run fresh at 1400m in a much harder race than this and now returns to his preferred distance range. Draws ideally in gate 1 and may be able to race closer to the speed than usual and has finished close up at this trip when racing in Victoria. Main concern will be if the leader dictates and he is buried away back in the field from his inside draw but with luck in running he only has to run up to his last start effort to be winning this.
Able Ken has been racing well at the longer 2100m trip and has found himself a bit of a niche rolling along in the lead. Has freshened up to come back to the 1800m and also has the blinkers reapplied to sharpen him up further. Looks like getting a comfortable lead and Kim Moore has ridden him to victory from the front before so he profiles well for a race like this at this track. Obviously a leading chance.
Electric Crimson has been very good at both runs in this state and can find this easier than what he has been contesting. Siggy Carr takes the reins so it is likely he will race forward from his good draw and he can be right there to challenge Able Ken if the on-pacers can dictate a suitable tempo. His form ties in well with the other major chances in this so he looks an obvious winning chance also.
Reckon they are the 3 chances to produce the winner here. Next best looks to be Moonless (trained here and best at the longer trips but mixing his form and hasn’t won for nearly 2 years) and Our Anna (can race forward, wasn’t far away last time over the 2100m).
Verdict: A repeat of his last effort would see Cheryl’s Horse getting the money here but if he can’t be on speed early he may find it hard to run down the on pacers Able Ken and Electric Crimson in what looks a thin race.
Recommended Bet: 6 units to win Cheryl’s Horse.
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Race 6 3:55pm Cressy Chaff Cutters Jim Osborne Longford Cup (1800m)
Should be a genuine tempo in the Cup with Miss It And A Bit sure to take up the lead and run them along at a good clip. Sir Joey can be right there if they stick with the same tactics employed last time at Devonport, while Fund Trader, Aventador and Lingo can be right on speed also. Expecting just a standard tempo with just the one obvious leader but any pressure the on-pacers inject into the race earlier than usual will suit those back in the field.
Fund Trader was a strong win at a mile last time in what was run at a very fast clip so even with a month between runs he should be fit enough if good enough. Does appear to race best on the outside of horses and should get that here. First try at 1800m is a concern but he has been very strong at the end of a mile and has had 3 runs there to prep for this. Only has to hold his form to be a leading winning chance in this.
Lingo was disappointing last time in the Sheffield Cup from a wide barrier, which followed a close 2nd in the Golden Mile from an inside draw. Has blinkers back on but did fail at his only try over this trip in the Easter Cup at Devonport. Has drawn beautifully to get a cheap run back on the inside and is in well with Wong’s claim and has a strong chance if he can run the trip out strongly.
Aventador has been in excellent form over 2100m, winning 2 of his past 3, but the drop back to 1800m shouldn’t concern given he was successful over 1400m before that. Does get up in the weights to 58kg here and should find this a bit tougher than the lower grade staying races he has been contesting. In such good form that he’s hard to pot but while he can obviously win he is going to have to improve again to give weight to these and beat them all.
Settler’s Stone was excellent 2nd up in Hobart over 1400m and now looks ready to step to 1800m. Made up a lot of ground in a good race last time and looks ready to return to the form he showed last prep when he strung 3 wins in a row before running 4th and spelling. Only run here at his home track was an improved effort early in his career after he hadn’t shown much so he should appreciate it but it doesn’t really suit his racing pattern in a race of this type. Goes in everything after such a good run last time but will need to be just as good again to win from the back here.
Up Cups reinvented himself at this track this time last year when he flashed home from the back to win over 1400m and showed himself to be a different horse when ridden back in the field. Has generally raced well this prep without really finding a suitable race and hasn’t been far away on a number of occasions. Ready for 1800m after 3 mile runs and was close up behind Fund Trader two starts back so that form ties in well here. Gate 1 can advantage him to pinch runs along the fence much the same as when he ran 2nd in the Tapeta Distance Final and while he is finding it hard to win in this grade he’s an obvious place chance.
Next best in an even Longford Cup looks Shipspotting (good breakthrough win last time and better suited back to 1800m but will find this harder) and Miss It And A Bit (in light with Barr’s claim and last couple have been better, has a hope if she can bowl along at her leisure).
Verdict: Even race with many chances. Fund Trader is in excellent form and looks pretty well suited if he can run the trip, while Lingo has the proven form in Open company. Any of the top five chances could win without surprising however.
Recommended Bet: 4 units to win on Fund Trader.
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