FORMPLUS contributor Mike Clarke has taken a detailed look at the Group 3 Ladbrokes Devonport Chase run Tuesday. Odds listed have been taken at 14:30 on Monday.
View speed maps for the Devonport meeting here.
- STOP LINE – Ladbrokes $1.65
The early favourite and deservedly so after drawing the inside alley. He had to work hard in his heat after missing the start and finding the fence where he was held up around the bend before finishing strongly to record 25.66, a length off the best of the day. He loves the rail and his draw is made even better here with the best beginners all having wide boxes. The slowest early paced runner is in box two and there is a wide runner in box three so even if he does miss it slightly, he may get a chance to drive through and challenge for the front. The start before his heat was a brilliant win from this box where he ran 5.94 early and if he can produce something close to that he will be very tough to beat.
- BRIDWOOD MARSHAL – Ladbrokes $17.00
The only runner who backed up his heat with a run on Friday. He seemed to stumble after the start during that effort and the result was a slow, 6.28 first section. He ran 6.12 in his heat and has gone around a length quicker from this box in the past. Even with his best early section it appears as though he will be in the back half of the field as they approach the turn, so may need some luck in-running. The positive is he has drawn where he likes to race and there is a wide runner to his outside. He is a place chance from the inside however may be racing a little below his better sprint form from prior to his impressive, middle-distance times.
- STANLEY GORDON – Ladbrokes $3.60
Recorded the second slowest first section of the heats (6.03) despite obtaining a clear run from the same box he has in the final. His overall time was terrific, and he can improve on it as it was his first run in almost a month. He is one of, if not the quickest runner in the field as we saw when he broke the track record on the spacious Hobart track in October. He does however like to race wide as he did last week when he headed to the middle of the track immediately after the boxes opened. There are some excellent beginners drawn out wide and most of them like to rail, so he may encounter some trouble in the run to the bend unless he can begin at his best and use his big frame to hold his position. Still a big danger with the right run early.
- SACRED SHADOW – Ladbrokes $15.00
Ran fourth in this race almost a year ago and was back to her best early in her heat recording her best early section since that campaign in January. Her heat time was as quick as any other runner in the field and her Hobart sprint form prior to that is equally impressive. However, she faces a more difficult draw on this occasion and even if she can repeat her 5.97 effort from her heat, it is most likely not going to be quick enough to hold a forward position. She is a strong performer who has run some brilliant recent times over the longer distances and may be relying on some luck from back in the field to run home in to the placings.
- LEICA PRAYER – Ladbrokes $13.00
Has made the most of her three inside draws on the track at her last three starts and although she dwelt slightly last week, managed to drive along the rail and record 5.92 to the first mark. She ran 5.90 and 5.91 the starts before that which have been the best early sections of her career. Is keen for the fence so the draw may be difficult to overcome and is facing her toughest test to date after competing in Grade 3 and 4 class prior to her heat. She drew this box in the Gold Collar Final in Hobart recently where she met some of the same competition and wasn’t able to cross over and find the fence.
- NED ISAKOFF – Ladbrokes $12.00
The quickest heat winner was bumped in the charge to the turn during his heat making his run slightly more impressive. That win was from box two and he has done his best racing from the inside where he is keen to race. He has a brilliant record on the track winning five races from boxes 2,2,2,3 and 4 with his only defeat coming from the same draw he has in the Final. His overall times, as we saw in the heats, are quick enough to challenge however his draw may be hard to overcome, especially when you add two excellent beginners drawn to his outside.
- SPEEDY DENEHOLME – Ladbrokes $51.00
The outsider of the field ran clearly the fastest early section of the heats, a sensational 5.86. He does get a little tired in the run home over this distance and his best efforts have come from the inside boxes. While he is an outside chance to win the race, he has a big role to play in the early part as he will be using his speed to try and cross over to the rail where he prefers to race, which could inconvenience some racers and also provide some room for others. His best chance in the race would be if he was able to find the front and hope his best time is good enough to finish in the placings as he did in his heat.
- CHIEF’S EMPIRE – Ladbrokes $6.50
Is a multiple Group 1 finalist who has produced some smart early sections since arriving in Tasmania. Ran an excellent 5.94 in his heat which was on par with his other first sections over the short distance so we can expect a similar performance in the final. He appeared to have every chance in his heat after finding the front and although he may improve on his first-up effort on the track, he would likely need to find at least four lengths and could find himself posted wide through the bend. His best hope may be if the quick beginners in boxes 5, 6 and 7 head to the rail as normal, then he may get some room to work across the field.
Betting Plan: Looking at the past 12 runs of each of the finalists, the top 10 times are dominated by STOP LINE (1) with STANLEY GORDON (3) the only other runner to feature. STOP LINE (1) has the better draw and early speed so it’s hard to go past the local star who is looking to bring up his 20th win on the track.
Betting Plan: STOP LINE (1) 3 units to WIN.